The concerns over US commitment to the deal are resurfacing ahead of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA, which will be held in Vienna on Friday.
Unreliable Partner
US President Donald Trump in October last year said he would no longer certify the deal before the US Congress, as required by the US domestic law, and urged the US legislature to improve the nuclear deal. However, the other parties to the deal have expressed stronger interest in keeping the deal intact.
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Washington's reputation might suffer if it withdrew from the deal unilaterally, but the agreement itself would remain viable, Majed bin Abdulaziz Al Turki, the head of the Center for Media and Arab-Russian Studies, based in Riyadh, told Sputnik.
"The United States is aware that it is not the only party to the nuclear agreement with Iran… meaning that the US withdrawal will remain a unilateral US decision, not binding for the rest of the parties, and may negatively affect the future of [other] US-sponsored agreements," Al Turki said.
The current situation around Iran's nuclear deal underscores the contradictions in the US position, according to the scholar. The original deal, made in 2015 by the US administration under Barack Obama, did not take into account the interests of some of US strategic partners in the region.
Domestic Turbulence
Trump has repeatedly criticized the agreement: in January, he said he was "waiving" the application of certain sanctions, but only so that the European parties to the deal could work on improving it.
"Tillerson was clearly against Trump in terms of quitting the deal," Kedmi said.
The deal between Iran, China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Germany and the European Union ensured lifting of economic sanctions off Iran in exchange for Tehran maintaining the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
Deal Without US
The United States may be unhappy with the agreement, but it is impossible to say for certain that it will quit, just as Iran's reaction is just as hard to predict, according to Kedmi.
"US withdrawal gives Iran a pretext for quitting the deal, but does not force it to do so," he said.
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The agreement would remain in force even after the US potential withdrawal, so its future would depend on Iran's reaction, Kedmi argued.
"If Iran says that after the US withdrawal they will void the deal and renew its nuclear program, it is one solution, but a smarter way to act would be to say that, despite the US withdrawal, they will continue adhering to the deal," he said.
The economic sanctions against Iran would not be effective in this case, because the rest of the states would remain parties to the deal, the former officer added.
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