Analyst Estimates Possible Impact of Erdogan's Victory on Turkish Foreign Policy

Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, secured a narrow victory on Monday in one of the most hotly contested and controversial elections in recent Turkish history. For more, Sputnik spoke to Salih Dogan, a researcher in politics and international relations at the Keele University.
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Sputnik: We hear that this result will allow Mr Erdogan to take the powers of an executive presidency, so what added powers will he have from here and how do you see this impacting upon Turkey’s domestic politics?

Salih Dogan: Well first of all we should say that this was a change of system as well, it’s not about only being elected as a president. The parliamentarian system has changed to a presidential system right now, so the president has the right to create the cabinet for himself. In earlier systems the cabinet of ministers was chosen from the MPs, from the members of parliament, but this time it all belongs to president Erdogan’s decision. He will create a cabinet, which may contain people outside of the parliament, actually. Most of the powers given to the cabinet members, the ministers, will be chosen by president Erdogan himself, which means that all of the decisions and powers that the parliament had in the past are transferred to the new cabinet, which will be chosen by the president Erdogan. He already had this power over the last two years actually with the state of emergency and now he can do it without state of emergency as well. The main power that the ruling party or the ruling members in the cabinet, they are all given to Erdogan now.

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Sputnik: And how do you see this having an impact upon Turkish foreign affairs, particularly with regards to its relations with the West, ongoing tensions with the United States, and joining the European Union?

Salih Dogan: Well Erdogan’s Party, the Justice and Development Party, had this notion of being a full member of the European Union in its first eight to ten year, until 2011. But then we have seen some rhetoric from the AKP members, including the president himself, saying that we do not care about the European Union, or being a member of NATO, so this is the result that he got from his people. The AKP is an Islamist party, ok, but they played with people’s minds in terms of their nationalistic ways and that’s why they made an alliance with the National Movement Party, and people who supported Erdogan and the leader of the Nationalist Party, these are the people who really do not have the notion of being a full member of the EU. So I guess it is really hard to say but I could say that Turkey’s relations with the West are not going to see a bright day in the near future. They will turn their faces toward more Eastern parts rather than the Western countries, so I think being a full EU member is not on their agenda right now, and I think having a good relationship with the West, the NATO countries, is not their first thing to do.

READ MORE: Turkish Elections: Polarization Will Not Disappear After Erdogan Win – Analyst

Sputnik: So that’s the attitude you expect him to take, but how do you expect Western leaders to respond to this victory, considering how controversial the concept of an absolute executive presidency is perceived?

Salih Dogan: Well I mean, it was something similar to last year’s referendum, most of the Turkish media has said that the world leaders are calling Erdogan to congratulate him about his winning, but what happened last year in the referendum and yesterday night, there had been some phone calls to president Erdogan but they came from couple of countries, like Azerbaijan and some countries in Africa and in the Middle East, and there was only one country from the European Union. So, it’s hard to say but the European Union and the EU members had an idea that Erdogan and his party if he continues to rule in Turkey are not going to have better relations in the near future and in the long term. So what I think is, it had some grounds as well, because Erdogan has tried to reach out to peoples living, especially in Germany, and in the Netherlands, they have some problems with their leaders due to the blocking of AKP campaigns during this time, so I don’t think there will be very good relations and I don’t think EU leaders will be looking to have better relations with Turkey.

The views expressed in this article are those of the speaker, and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

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