Trump remains incredibly popular within the GOP. According to a CNN/SRSS poll, among Republicans, 69% say supporting Donald Trump is very or somewhat important to what being a Republican means. His importance to the identity of the party makes him the early frontrunner to claim the 2024 Republican nomination.
However, Trump’s hold over the party could be waning. The same poll reported that 63% of Republicans believe Trump should be the leader of the party, but only 51% believe Trump gives Republicans the best chance to win the presidency in 2024. In a March 2019 poll, 78% of Republicans said that Trump was the party’s best chance of winning the 2020 presidential election. Part of the degradation in confidence of Trump’s ability to win the White House likely stems from his loss to Joe Biden in 2020 and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
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These new poll findings paint a complicated picture for Republicans with aspirations of making a presidential bid in 2024. Trump remains popular, but the party’s confidence in his ability to win has taken a hit. In essence, Republicans haven’t let it be known what type of candidate they’re looking for. There’s also the reality of Trump’s highly aggressive rhetoric towards political opponents. Any Republican that throws their hat in the 2024 ring could find themselves the subject of intense and unyielding ridicule.
According to the oddsmakers, Trump remains the best bet to win the 2024 Republican nomination at +208 followed by Ron DeSantis (+375), Nikki Haley (+733), Mike Pence (+1400), and Tucker Carlson (+1500).
DeSantis has seen his odds surge since he was at +4000 on November 6th, 2020. The 2024 US presidential election is still three years away, Donald Trump has multiple ongoing lawsuits, and the 2022 midterm elections will be instrumental in capturing how voters feel.