The Biden administration setting the date of a Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine puts in question the reliability of US intelligence assessments, opines Brahma Chellaney, a prominent Indian strategist.
"When was the last time US intelligence assessment proved right on a major geopolitical issue?" Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, wondered.
President Joe Biden had reportedly informed US allies that Russia could launch a barrage of missile strikes and cyber-attacks on 16 February, a claim which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dubbed an overstatement by the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also questioned the report, saying his country does not want another war in Europe.
Despite Russia's Defence Ministry releasing a video on Tuesday showing forces withdrawing from the Ukrainian border, the US president said a Russian attack on Ukraine was "still very much a possibility".
Some 150,000 troops were still deployed at the border with Ukraine, he claimed.
"Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position", the US president emphasised.
Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan?
Besides locating al Qaeda* (a terrorist organisation banned in Russia) founder Osama bin Laden's hideout next to Pakistan's Military Academy, Chellaney, a noted author and commentator, underlines, "US intelligence failed to foresee most of the profound geopolitical events".
The media widely reported on the US intelligence failure in Afghanistan, as several congressmen admitted in private that agencies in briefings to lawmakers gave no warning that the Afghan government was facing imminent collapse.
The Taliban proclaimed "full independence" on 15 August, days after the Biden administration announced the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
The events surrounding US troops leaving Afghanistan from Kabul Airport indicated a colossal failure of intelligence.
9/11 or Iraq's WMD?
The 9/11 Commission also highlighted the CIA's failure in estimating the threat posed by "transnational terrorism" throughout the 1990s and up to the 2001 attack.
Similarly, US-led forces invaded Iraq on the CIA's "solid intelligence" that the Saddam Hussein government was developing weapons of mass destruction.
As Washington never found evidence to support the CIA's "solid" claim, former President George W. Bush called his action his "biggest regret."
Indian expert Chellaney warned of another imminent danger for US intelligence as he said that "It has yet to recover from People's Republic of China's elimination a decade ago of all its spies in China".
Chellaney believes hyper-partisan domestic politics has started impeding Washington's long-term objectives, evident from a March 2021 poll, dubbing China as a major cause of concern for Republicans, while Democrats worry about Russia above all.