No Plans for Offensive on Donbass? Docs Show 48% Boost in Kiev's Defence Industry Output in 2022

Kiev's war machine has been working tirelessly since at least 2014, trying to compensate for over a decade of stagnation and give the new nationalist-minded authorities that came to power after a Western-backed coup a chance to subdue the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics by force. Fast forward eight years, and the country's main defence contractor, Ukroboronprom, suddenly underwent a miraculous transformation, turning into a joint-stock company between June and October 2021, with the latter starting to openly report its successes in producing military hardware under new transparency requirements – right on its website.

According to newly published transparency information, in the first three quarters of 2021 Ukroboronprom reported 27.4% growth in production volumes compared to the previous year. Information from January 2022, in turn, said that total year-by-year growth reached 24% in 2021 compared to 2020.

Ukroboronprom's data also revealed progress made by specific sub branches. Namely, 15 enterprises working in the field of high-precision weapons and ammunition produced 34% more wares, such as precision missiles and shells, in 2021 compared to the previous year. The firm's aviation enterprises showed a 36% increase in production output. These companies build airplanes for both civilian and military use – three An-178 cargo planes were set to be built for the Ukrainian military by the end of the year.

Ukroboronprom's production level for armoured vehicles and main battle tanks remained on the same level as in 2020. At the same time, the concern focused on the modernisation of Ukraine's main battle tank, the T-64BV.

These logs indicate the acceleration of Kiev's preparations for military activities although its goal was never revealed. Yet, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned during a press conference in Antalya, Turkey on 10 March that Kiev had been planning an offensive against the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR) as early as March 2022.

The Ukrainian defence giant was not working on big military contracts alone – it cooperated with several foreign companies. The Croatian firm ISKRA and Turkish company Hidrodinamik are helping the Kherson State Plant "Pallada", owned by Ukroboronprom, to build a new floating dock for repairing Ukrainian warships.

Ukroboronprom additionally signed an agreement for cooperation with the France-based Thales Group, which develops aerospace, defence, transportation, and security products.

One of post-coup Kiev's key allies, the US, also did not remain on the sidelines in helping Ukraine militarise even as it repeatedly refused to follow the roadmap for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Donbass – the Minsk agreements signed in 2015. Ukroboronprom signed a cooperation agreement with the US Institute for Defence Analyses (IDA) in November 2021 so that the latter could help Ukraine's defence companies to undergo reorganisation and corporatisation, as well as provide strategic analysis for the industry.

And in February 2022, Ukroboronprom's Director Yuriy Husyev met with US Charge d'Affairs in Ukraine Christina Quinn in the American Embassy. The two discussed the "next steps in cooperation", strategic partnership, military-technical cooperation, and defence, as per the February digest by the company.

The last available data from the Ukrainian defence contractor, dated 15 February, nine days before the start of the Russian operation, said that over the past year Ukroboronprom had built, upgraded, and repaired 3,300 units of various military vehicles such as tanks, helicopters, jets, and armoured vehicles. The document does not reveal the purpose for such exorbitant military output.

Over the past eight years, Kiev has not come any closer to implementing the Minsk agreements. Instead, it focused on building up the nation's military might, both internally and with the help of allies in the West, as well as constantly violating the Minsk agreements themselves – by shelling the DPR and LPR with forbidden 120mm mortar shells.