Climate change may increase the risk of cross-species transmissions of viruses in different animals that were previously geographically isolated from each other, according to an early version of a new study published in Nature.
The study, led by Colin Carlson from Georgetown University, estimates that around 10,000 species are capable of transmitting viruses to humans, but most of the viruses are circulating in wild mammals.
However, with climate change prompting hotter temperatures, animals — among them bats — will be moving to new areas, potentially "increasing the risk of emerging infectious diseases jumping from animals to humans in the next 50 years."
Densely populated areas face the highest risk, especially those in tropical Africa and south-east Asia.
In order to estimate the risk, the scientists created a model of how mammals may move as the world's temperature increases by 2 degrees Celsius by 2070, with their usual habitats becoming too hot. The study has suggested that some 15,000 new transmissions, mostly driven by bats, can be expected.
Given that virus have proven able to pass from bats to humans, that could be bad news for humanity. The world struggled to manage the coronavirus pandemic that is believed to have originated in bats sold for cooking in a ‘wet market’ in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Climate change has been declared one of the urgent challenges facing the planet, with many governments setting a goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels or even reached net zero carbon emissions.