Boris Johnson is likely to win in Monday's no-confidence vote, but even his victory is not going to make things right for him, it is suspected.
Ahead of the evening vote, Johnson's anti-corruption tsar John Penrose has already resigned. The prime minister, however, is unlikely to follow in his footsteps, suggests Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at Leicester's De Montfort University. Still, the situation remains tough for both Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.
"I don't think there are that number of Conservative MPs who are willing to remove him yet, because there is no obvious successor to him," explains Jones. "If there was a clear successor, then quite possibly Johnson would already have gone by now. But as it is, I suspect he's going to win, but he's going to be even more damaged than he was prior to this vote of no confidence being called."
Despite Dominic Raab being sure of people being "exhausted" by the partygate saga, there are still a lot of Brits who want Johnson to be held accountable for illegal Downing Street Partying, the professor assrts.
"The problem is that [they’re] asking people to forget about a prime minister who has lied to the public, who has lied to the Queen, and who doesn't seem to care that he's breaking the rules and that he wants to change the rules and apply those changed rules retrospectively," Jones argues. "So now if minister lies to Parliament or misleads Parliament and does not retract the statement, they should just apologise. They don't have to resign. So he's watering down the standards and a lot of people are looking at this and thinking that he's changing the rules to suit himself."
Still, a snap general election is unlikely to happen, the professor believes, as it would be "a waste of time". After the no-confidence vote, it's either a victory for Boris Johnson that will save his position as the prime minister, or a loss, which will trigger a leadership election.
Should the latter happen, Johnson wouldn't have any luck dissolving Parliament to call a general election: not only because the Tories might lose it, but also because the Queen is unlikely to let it happen, he argues.
"I think that causes a constitutional crisis. So whether Johnson would do that to try to keep himself in the post, go to the public rather than to his own MPs, I don't know what the outcome of that would be, in all honesty," he says.
If Boris Johnson loses the no-confidence vote, he will cease being the leader of the Conservative Party, but will stay on as prime minister until a replacement is elected - something that could take up to several months. It's also unlikely that Johnson will call a snap general election because pre-election polls for the Wakefield election have indicated that they've lost appeal among voters. According to recent reports, the chances of the Conservatives winning the Wakefield by-election are quite low, with the Tories trailing Labour by 20 points.
"So I think Boris Johnson calling a snap general election could actually lead to a huge election defeat for him rather than the victory that he might suspect," Jones concluded.
The upcoming no-confidence vote is just another problem in the pile of troubles faced by the Conservatives. With remaining Brexit repercussions and the rising cost of living, it seems that the Tories simply cannot manage all crises they're dealing with. This is worsened by the ongoing infighting within the party, with some MPs thinking "Boris Johnson is the only way to win the next general election," and the other half "[knowing] that he isn't", according to Jones.
And the Monday vote will only make things worse, the professor argues.
"Even if Boris Johnson wins with a majority of well over a hundred, he is still going to be damaged goods. Theresa May, when she had her leadership challenge, she won a huge, huge majority and was gone six months later," he says. "[Johnson] is going to be even less trusted by his own party than he was before, regardless of the outcome. So this is going to paralyse the Conservative Party even further."
The no-confidence vote is set to take place from 6 to 8 p.m. UK time.