The European Union could stop functioning properly or even disintegrate completely if Ukraine or other prospective candidates for membership like Moldova, Georgia, Albania and other Balkan states joined, Bloomberg contributor Andreas Kluth has warned.
“Giving full membership to Ukraine now would create so many problems for the EU that the bloc – never a paragon of effective governance to begin with – might break down, or even apart,” Kluth wrote in an op-ed on Monday.
Recalling French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments last month about the EU’s feeling “in our heart” that Ukraine, “through its fight and its courage, is already today a member of our Europe, of our family and of our union,” the columnist stressed that along with hearts, Europeans also have heads. “And the heads of many leaders and Eurocrats – including Macron’s – are shaking rather than nodding.”
Kluth suggested that rushing countries’ membership bids was a “bad idea,” not just because their economies, legal systems and other institutions aren’t prepared, but because it would constitute a “recklessness” on the part of an association which has yet to resolve basic, intrinsic inter-bloc tensions between absorbing new countries and integrating those already part of the EU.
“With each of the seven rounds of enlargement – from the original six countries to the 27 today – running the show has become messier and more unwieldy. The growing number of institutions and Commissioners – each country appoints one – is the least of it, as is the Babel-like chaos of languages, traditions and national interests. The real problem is that the EU, as it grew, didn’t rewrite its treaties thoroughly enough to allow the bloc to stay coherent and deal with real-world problems,” the journalist wrote.
Kluth pointed out that under existing treaty rules, even a single member can veto, and thus halt, effective joint action. This and other “design flaws all but condemn the EU to failure whenever a big problem turns up,” he wrote, recalling the euro crisis, the refugee crisis, and the bloc’s “joke” of a foreign and defence policy. Furthermore, he wrote, Brussels has no mechanism for kicking out “errant members” when they violate bloc rules, pointing to the ongoing ‘rule of law’ spat between the EU, Hungary and Poland.
Characterizing the EU’s admissions process a “Kafkaesque” nightmare that takes years or even decades, Kluth suggested it was problematic that it’s so difficult to prevent countries backsliding on the bloc’s stringent requirements once they’re members.
“The EU can’t really fix its operating system,” the journalist wrote, since members are not in agreement on its purpose – a United States of Europe, a mere common market or something in between.
Given all these problems, Kluth suggested that countries like Ukraine should be symbolically welcomed “into the European fraternity right now,” but not admitted “prematurely” until the bloc resolves its internal problems, possibly though the forgotten concept of a “multi-speed” EU pushed by Macron.
Ukraine formally applied for EU membership on 28 February, four days after Russia kicked of a special operation to demilitarize the country. On Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told President Volodymyr Zelensky that the EU was finalizing its assessment on whether to recommend Ukraine for formal candidate status, and would announce its decision by the end of this week.
European officials and media have urged that Ukraine’s officials to realize that EU membership could be years or even decades away, with some observers warning the country might never join the bloc if it doesn’t resolve problems like rampant corruption, shortcomings in rule of law, poverty, and nationalism, plus the current military crisis with Russia.