India's Legacy Advantages Face Challenges From Pakistan, China in Afghanistan - Pundit

Sputnik spoke with Brigadier Rahul Bhonsle (retired), Director at Security Risks Asia, about India's decision and its challenges.

Rahul Bhonsle: Presently, India has only deployed a technical team in Kabul after an assessment was undertaken last month by a team led by a joint secretary-level official who had gone there. The aim was for the development projects India had undertaken there to be continued rather than allowed to wither away. The Taliban has also seen to accept that.

As far as establishing a full-fledged embassy is concerned, I think that will take time because of the suspicion that India has regarding security and the legacy of contested relations with the Taliban 1.0.

The IEA's interior minister is Sirajuddin Haqqani. Notably, as you know, the interior ministry is handled by the Haqqani network. Now, until Mr. Haqqani assures the security of the Indian embassy, given that Haqqani networks close relationships and linkages with Pakistan's ISI (spy agency), India is not going to accept the face statement by the Taliban that security is guaranteed. I think that is the principal issue.

Rahul Bhonsle: One should accept that the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan in the short-term have flourished and improved, and they will continue in this direction for a short time. However, I believe that in the medium to long-term, their relationship will continue to be contested. There are big legacy issues here.

The first is the Durand line. Whether it has the Taliban or a republican government, Afghanistan will never accept the Durand line as an international border. Now, more confrontations are happening because the Pakistan Army has made extensive fencing. They have blocked the movement of Pashtuns going in and out, meeting their brethren on either side of the border. Already we have reported incidents of clashes. This is a big issue as far as Afghans are concerned, and the Taliban is very much aware of it.

The second aspect is the sanctuaries that the Taliban provides or has in the Afghanistan territory, including for Tehrik-e-Taliban and other groups that are inimical to Pakistan's security interests. I suppose the Taliban do not have the capability nor the intent to neutralize these sanctuaries. I think these two issues will continue to bring moments of friction between the Taliban and Pakistan.

Rahul Bhonsle: India has provided $3 billion in infrastructure development assistance in projects, which are having a visual impact on the grounds during the period of the republic in the last two decades. Now, the Taliban, which operates in the rural areas where they continue to have an enormous influence, has seen the Indian projects in all the provinces, including in the south in Kandhar, which is their heartland, making a huge difference to the people's lives and economy. And they now know that if any country can deliver these development projects, it is India.

No doubt, many countries may spend more than the Indian side, but as far as regional countries, India was the strongest supporter of these development projects. Given this factor, the Taliban is fully aware of it. That is why you will find right from day one Taliban has been requesting the Indian side for engagement; they are portraying that there will be a full security guarantee, and this is where India has an advantage.

Secondly, the Taliban know that India will operate in mutual interest. India will not operate as a player who is only concerned about its own interests because India is genuinely interested in the welfare of the people of Afghanistan.

Rahul Bhonsle: Post-US withdrawal, China has made huge progress and has a tremendous outreach in Afghanistan, particularly in the mining, oil, and energy sector. Many consumer companies are also deployed in Afghanistan, trying to make inroads there.

The Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan or the Taliban 2.0 knows very well that the Chinese are there in their country to derive their own benefits, harvest mines, and take resources away from them. The Taliban have got a nationalist mindset. China has not been a development partner of Afghanistan in last two decades. The Taliban know that very well. Pakistan, of course, doesn't have the capacity to carry out development works in Afghanistan. On the other hand, India's development assistance has been robust and the highest among the countries of the region.

The second factor is that India's large economy is integrated with the Afghan economy, particularly in agriculture, horticulture, and a few other sectors. India is a large consumer of Afghan goods. That is why you will find calls coming from the Taliban, requesting the opening of an air supply route to India.

So, I think these two factors — economy and development, give a massive advantage to India. Still, New Delhi will have to also be wary as Pakistan and China try to cut these various channels in a very disruptive and deceitful manner.