Boris Johnson's days as British prime minister could be numbered if his opponents are elected to the Conservative Party's powerful 1922 Committee — so says a British academic.
Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at Leicester's De Montfort University, told Sputnik that the Tories' recent defeat in two Parliamentary by-elections could see Johnson's enemies take control of the caucus of party MPs. Amongst other things, the 1922 Committee decides when a Conservative leadership challenge may go ahead.
The exact date of biennial elections for the committee's 18 members will be announced next Wednesday, but is believed to be in the next few weeks.
Jones pointed out that the committee’s six office-bearers — Chairman Graham Brady, Vice-Chairs William Wragg and Nusrat Ghani, Treasurer Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Secretaries Bob Blackman and Gary Sambrook — do not have to face re-election unless challenged by an alternative candidate nominated by two other MPs.
The other 12 places are automatically up for grabs, but crucially only backbenchers — most of whom voted against Johnson in the June 6 no-confidence ballet — can run.
"There is a possibility that the vast majority of those who win are people who do not want Boris Johnson to be prime minister," Jones said. "So there will be a clean sweep potentially of all of the 1922 committee members being people who do not want Boris Johnson in post."
The professor gave credence to speculation that a committee dominated by rebels would change the rule that gives party leaders a 12-month grace period following an unsuccessful attempt to dethrone them.
"There is nothing to stop the 1922 committee from changing those rules," Jones explained. "There is speculation that they considered doing so when Theresa May was re-elected as party leader when she was challenged. But this is, as you say, speculation, because all of this is secret."
The key factor, according to the academic, is that no cabinet member or junior minister — who are obliged to support the government and PM at all times — have a vote in 1922 committee business.
"Therefore, anyone who is voting in this election, the vast majority, do not want Boris Johnson to remain in post,” Jones said. "There are arguments already starting up in the Conservative Party that this is in effect going to be like a coup and that the anti-Boris Johnson cabal are going to do whatever they can to remove him from office."
If the anti-Boris factions win out, the lecturer believes, another leadership election will soon be on the cards.
"Noting the huge defeats in the two by-elections and the fact that Boris Johnson has basically said he is not going to change how he is doing things — these two factors on top of everything else, have alienated many, if not all, of those Conservative MPs who are less than enthused about him... being party leader," he said.
"So the situation is going to be the possibility of another leadership election. And this time around, Boris Johnson [is] actually losing," Jones concluded.
Johnson's potential enemies in the 1922 Committee ironically include both the hard-line Eurosceptic and pro-European Union (EU) factions of the party.
Commons Defence Select Committee Chairman Tobias Ellwood, who recently took advantage of party infighting to call for the UK to re-join the EU's single market, has been a constant critic of Johnson since he became leader and PM in 2019.
But staunch Brexiteers Andrew Bridgen and Steve Baker are likewise seeking election to the committee. Baker is the former chairman of the European Research Group of some 70 anti-EU Tory MPs and current deputy-chair of the lockdown-skeptic COVID Recovery Group.