Professor David Woodard, Clemson University political scientist and former political consultant for Republican congressmen, believes that an early bid by Donald Trump could be "a disaster."
Sputnik: What are the pros and cons of starting the race in the middle of the highly publicized January 6 panel hearings?
Woodard: In my opinion Trump is not starting his race in the middle of the hearings. He is waiting and will file for office later. He likes the spotlight, but this time the hearings only hurt him. The Democrats know they are facing the apocalypse in the midterm elections this year, so they are playing the only tune they can - Trump is bad. They are hopeful of discrediting Trump before the midterm elections. I think the tactic is good: Trump has two impeachments against him and a riot on election day - those are not good recommendations for someone to run for office.
Sputnik: What legal and political consequences do you expect from the congressional hearings into the Capitol riot, especially given Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony last week?
Woodard: I think Cassidy Hutchinson will be discredited, but her testimony has been successful in raising questions Republicans, not just Democrats, have about Trump. Even if she can't prove that Trump "lunged for the wheel" in the limo, the behavior described fits his former president's personality. I think the GOP regulars are looking for a new leader and this hearing serves to discredit Trump even in his denial.
I think the hearings will be criticized by the Republican - about to be majority - in Congress. If Liz Cheney loses, then the hearings will be discredited. If Liz Cheney wins her race, (that is possible, but not probable) then the Trump people are in trouble because her victory shows that the GOP is independent of Trump appeals. That's big news.
Sputnik: Some Republicans are urging Trump to postpone his campaigning until after the midterms, arguing that he might prove a distraction from the party's message. How would an early bid affect the upcoming midterms results?
Woodard: An early bid by Trump could be a disaster. It is like the American space program, the early launch of a rocket means it could tumble back to earth. Trump is fully capable of a mistimed beginning, this isn't 2016 anymore. Timing is important in politics, and the Trump election was perfectly timed opposite Hillary Clinton. That isn't the case anymore, he's overstayed his time on the stage, and Republicans are ready to change to a new voice.
Sputnik: Trump would enter the race with an approval rating among Republicans of around 80 percent. Would an early bid help Trump to reassert himself as the head of the party and cause voters to rally behind him?
Woodard: Remember this about approval ratings (the 80% for Trump): They don't transfer into votes. Yes, Republicans remember Trump, but they also remember Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan - that doesn't mean they think those people from the past are the best choice in the present. Trump can only re-assert his leadership if he trashes his opponents in early presidential primaries...until then, everything about Trump is pure speculation. I believe that Trump - like Barry Goldwater, Ross Perot, and Richard Nixon - is past history. He can't revive himself after he is so well-known, and with his reputation he has a real problem looking good.
Sputnik: Who are his main rivals inside the party and how do you rate their chances?
Woodard: Obviously, the main voice of the future is Ron DeSantis in Florida. He's a governor and he has a regular voice opposite Biden. Tom Cotton from Arkansas is a solid, conservative voice but he isn't a startling, bright personality. Rick Scott is another Florida personality, but I think he is behind DeSantis. Nikki Haley from SC is a much smaller light than other members of the field, but she might make a good VP. Ted Cruz from Texas is too rough a personality after Trump, people like - they don't love - Cruz.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis listens during a news conference, Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2021, near the Shark Valley Visitor Center in Miami
© AP Photo / Wilfredo Lee
Mike Pence is strengthened by the congressional hearings because he is shown to be an honest man. His problem is that he doesn't have a platform to address the audience. I think Trump will be shown to be a bag of wind, something Americans don't want in the presidential office again.