As UK's Johnson Teeters On The Edge, Here Are The Top Contenders To Succeed As Next Tory PM

With Boris Johnson’s premiership rocked by shock resignations of his Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Rishi Sunak amid the latest damning scandal, Tory rebels have seen their hopes of toppling the Prime Minister fueled anew. While there was no indication from Johnson on Tuesday night that he intended to quit, as he carried out a speedy Cabinet reshuffle, a leadership contest appeared to be looming on the horizon. This has unleashed speculation regarding who could be in the running to replace the PM.

The ex-Chancellor is tipped by many as the favourite to succeed Johnson as a future leader of the Conservative Party.

At one point Rishi Sunak was top of the regular chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.

However, his reputation was dealt a severe blow earlier this year by backlash over his billionaire heiress wife Akshata Murty’s non-domicile tax status, albeit there was no suggestion she had broken any rules.

Furthermore, Sunak faced questions over keeping his US green card even after taking up the key job of Chancellor at No11. At the time, Sunak slipped to the bottom of the April chart compiled by the ConservativeHome website.

Nevertheless, the Conservative Party membership has overall approved of Sunak, dubbed the “low-tax chancellor”, suggested UK media outlets. Some analysts suggest his approval rating with the public has increased again this month amid measures implemented to support Britons through the cost of living crisis. Others have pointed to criticism of his perceived slow reaction to rising energy bills and insufficient help to the poorest households.

Rishi Sunak remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over from Johnson, with odds of 10/1 according to BetFair Exchange.

Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy since 2021, had thrown her support behind Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election. After that she exited the Cabinet, but later became paymaster general in 2020. She was subsequently moved to the Department for International Trade.

At times openly critical of government policy, on May 28, after the publication of the full Sue Gray report into “Partygate,” Mordaunt told the BBC that she was “angry” at Downing Street staff implicated in the row for blatantly ignoring pandemic rules while themselves blocking “reasonable requests to relax restrictions”.

Mordaunt is known to have said, regarding Johnson:

Penny Mordaunt is currently on odds of 6/1 on most of the major betting sites to replace Johnson.

Bromsgrove MP Sajid Javid’s odds appear to be on 19/1, according to various betting platforms. Javid was one of 10 Tory leadership challengers in 2019. He then held the position of UK Chancellor, resigning in February 2020 after Johnson ordered him to fire his team of aides, saying "no self-respecting minister" could accept such a condition. He was brought back into Boris Johnson’s cabinet as Health Secretary in summer 2021, after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.

Back when he threw his hat in the ring for the 2019 Tory leadership contest, Javid proposed cutting the top rate of income tax. More recently, he was reportedly among those against a windfall tax on oil and gas producers – a stance that might help boost his chances.

On June 6, Sajid Javid stressed his loyalty to the PM amid the “Partygate” row, saying a confidence vote was an “opportunity... to draw a line under all this”.

Jeremy Hunt, the former Health Secretary who also served as Foreign Secretary, lost to Johnson in the final round of the 2019 Conservative leadership contest. Since then he has been highly critical of the government.

As chairman of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, he excoriated Johnson’s team for its response to the pandemic. Maintaining a visible profile, he has been giving interviews to outlets, touting his new book and reflecting on the future of the Conservative Party. Thus, he recently warned that the Tories have a "big mountain to climb" if they hope to win the next general election amid fallout from the “Partygate” scandal.

Earlier this month, Hunt told The Times magazine now was not the “right time” for a leadership challenge, but he would “be very open with you that I don’t rule out a return in the future”.

Jeremy Hunt is on odds of 8/1 to take over Tory leadership.

The Foreign Secretary and MP for South West Norfolk, Liz Truss, has been touted as possible Tory leader at odds of 8/1. “Fizz with Liz” has been a phrase associated with Truss amid reports earlier this year that she hosted MPs in her parliamentary office to allegedly recruit possible backers for a leadership challenge to Johnson.

While securing a series of mini trade deals during her tenure as Trade Secretary, her threats to overwrite parts of the controversial Northern Ireland protocol as well as her sanctions response to Russia over its special military operation in Ukraine reportedly found favour with some Conservative backbenchers. Critics purportedly find Truss’s harsh rhetoric on the NI protocol distasteful.

When questioned recently about the prospect of her own bid to become PM, Truss insisted that Johnson retained her “100 per cent” confidence.

While never confirming she intended to run for leadership, she is known to often pose for choreographed social media posts, such as posing in a tank like Margaret Thatcher.

The Education Secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, Nadhim Zahawi, is currently at 12/1 odds to take over Tory premiership.

Zahawi, the vaccines minister during the coronavirus pandemic before being promoted to his current position, is noted for unveiling an education White Paper earlier in the year. Coming in the wake of exams mayhem overseen by his predecessor, Gavin Williamson, the government’s vision for schools for the next eight years was given a ‘muted’ response. “Not much to object to, little to inspire, and inadequate funding to achieve any of its stated ambitions,” one source in the education sector was cited as saying at he time.

Zahawi has also been an adamant backer of the current government’s “levelling up” agenda with his renewed focus on standards in schools and the multi-academy trust policy.

Zahawi has also vehemently defended Johnson in multiple media appearances throughout the “Partygate” row.

Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary who served in the Scots Guards, has drummed up kudos for his part in the UK’s response to Russia’s special operation to demilitarize Ukraine. His odds are seen as vying for second place with Hunt and Truss on 8/1.

Wallace is believed to have won aficionados among Tory MPs who pressed for the UK to increase its defence spending, despite cuts to the size of the army remaining a niggling cause for concern.

Ben Wallace has played down any speculation of his perceived interest in the Tory leadership.

MP for Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat is on odds of 11/1, according to some platforms.

Notably, the chair of the Foreign Affairs committee, who has been strongly critical of Boris Johnson throughout his premiership, became the first Tory MP in January to announce his intention to stand for leader should the PM quit office.

Home Secretary Priti Patel has introduced a points-based immigration system and was the architect of the controversial Channel migrant deal with Rwanda, which would see illegals sent to the African country for processing. The agreement placed her in the crosshairs of numerous human rights groups. However, the deal has been touted as capable of solving he migrant problem plaguing the government.

Patel was the last member of the Cabinet to confirm her support for Johnson on Monday amid the latest scandal, with her spokesman saying the Home Secretary continued to give her full backing to the PM.

Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, who also served as Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, had run against the current PM in the 2019 Conservative election, making it to third round and finishing sixth after rising through the ranks as a Brexiteer.

Raab gained praise after his deputising stint for Johnson when the PM was hospitalised with COVID-19 in 2020. However, in the wake of the ‘botched’ NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, Raab came under fire for holidaying in Crete while the Afghan government collapsed, and delegating tasks to junior ministers. He was, accordingly moved from being Foreign Secretary.

A spate of tough reforms aimed at ‘clamping down’ on “wokery” in the legal and prison systems were introduced during his time as Justice Secretary.

Raab has publicly urged the public to forgive the Prime Minister over the “Partygate” scandal.

His leadership odds are at approximately at 28/1.

The latest wave of cabinet resignations came in the wake of the Prime Minister attempting to draw a line under the latest scandal to rock no 10. Boris Johnson had been giving an interview admitting he should not have appointed now-suspended Tory MP Chris Pincher as deputy chief whip in February after claims the MP groped two men at a private club on June 30.

With No 10 appearing to tie itself into knots trying to explain why Pincher was ever given a key government position in the first place, considering a slew of damning previous sexual misconduct allegations regarding Pincher, both the opposition Labour Party and the rebel Tories have hike up demands for Johnson to step down.

The PM’s position appears increasingly shaky amid reports of a plot to use elections to the influential 1922 Committee’s executive to alter the Tory party rules. Currently, they grant Johnson 12-months' immunity from another leadership challenge. But considering he survived a no confidence vote on June 6 with 41% of his party voting to oust him over the so-called “Partygate” row, his position now appears even more shaky.