The recent congressional victory of Republican Mayra Flores and congressional candidacies of Monica De La Cruz and Cassy Garcia have prompted reports about an emerging "far-right Latino" movement in Texas, a longtime Republican stronghold that the Democrats have been hoping to turn blue or at least purple through Democrat-leaning Hispanics.
This comes as an unpleasant development for the Democratic Party given the decades-long expectation that the Hispanics may become the foundation of an "emerging Democratic majority."
A poll by the Wall Street Journal found Hispanic voters giving equal support to both parties, while Gallup's data on Latino party identification for 2021 showed that the Democrats still had a 30-point advantage over the Republicans, with 56% of Latinos identifying as Democrat or leaning Democratic compared to 26% of Latinos who consider themselves Republicans or leaning Republican.
At the same time, US First Lady Jill Biden's recent attempt at pandering to the Latino community massively backfired after she made an awkward compliment saying that the Latino community is as unique as "the breakfast tacos." This gaffe drew a wave of public criticism, suggesting that the Democrats need to reconsider their outreach to Hispanics.
Stephen Nuno-Perez, chair of the Department of Politics and International Affairs of Northern Arizona University, thinks that the trend "reflects common frustration among Hispanics with the political system in general, which has disproportionate disadvantages for Hispanics."
At the same time, he noted that the Latino community had greater optimism toward the Republican Party in the 80s with George Bush's election in 2000 possibly being the peak in Hispanic support, which was later undermined by the "nationalist surge among whites" after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the wars in the Middle East coupled with the rise of the Tea Party during the Obama presidency.
"So Hispanic support for the GOP is still historically low, and whatever movement towards the GOP recently perhaps reflects the historical fact that Latinos have always found some attraction to the GOP's message," Nuno-Perez said, adding that the issues of economy and jobs are still at the top of Latino priorities.
According to Jessica Lavariega Monforti, a political scientist and the vice provost at California State University Channel Islands, the Latinos are issue-based voters, meaning their party commitment is weaker than attachments to policy stances and "as parties shift their focus from one issue to another, Latino voters are responding in kind."
Rogelio Saenz, a professor of demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, pointed to the issues of economy, jobs and education as important to the Latino community. He also noted the diversity of the Latino population, stressing that the issue of immigration can be also seen as "a very important issue for a certain segment of the Latino population," but not necessarily for other segments that are "further down [the line]."
"Another part of the equation has to do with the Homeland Security, the border wall and everything like that," he said.
In many border communities the so-called "good jobs" are often associated with law enforcement, the US Border Patrol and Homeland Security, Saenz clarified, noting that Mayra Flores' husband is a Border Patrol agent.
TAKEN FOR GRANTED
Jill Biden's gaffe, according to Saenz, goes to show that the Democrats do not know the Latino voter.
"I think the major part of the story is the extent to which the Democratic Party has really taken for granted the Latino population in Texas, and particularly in south Texas. So there has been very little investment in terms of trying to make sure that they have the support of the Latino population and you see it again with respect to [the fact that] there is not only the lack of engagement but also, to a certain extent, I think, the lack of understanding of the diversity of the population," Saenz explained.
When it comes to the Latino population, especially in the border regions, the Republicans have successfully hijacked the discourse, being very aggressive in their messaging on immigration, in particular, to which the Democrats have no response, Saenz said. Other issues that the Democrats could address while courting the Hispanic vote could be health care, abortion and gun control, he added.
Lavariega Monforti echoed the sentiment, calling on the Democrats to start doing real work instead of pandering to secure the votes.
"We have to remember that Latinos respond to outreach. If outreach efforts go wrong, it matters. Neither party has done much more than pandering on issues that are important to Latino communities. If Democrats want Latino votes, they have to make a change and stop taking Latino support for granted," she concluded.