Ernst, a professor at the University of Liege’s Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in Belgium, suggested that the EU’s executive arm wanted to rouse member states into getting ready for power rationing this winter.
"Europe plays at scaring itself by saying that we cannot be sure that Russia will relaunch the gas pipeline after the maintenance. Does the EU or Germany have precise information? No one knows. It is also an excuse to prepare Europeans for rationing," he said.
Ernst warned that the EU would not be able to fully replace Russian deliveries via Nord Stream 1 for years to come. It still needs to set up LNG infrastructure, build terminals and hundreds of LNG carriers and invest in extraction in producing countries. Meanwhile, prohibitive prices will not allow it to rely on spot markets.
"It is enough to see the astronomical prices on the spot market to realize the problem. The price per m³ of gas has increased by 400%. And all these alternative producers cannot compensate now for the 155 billion m³ delivered each year by Russia. I believe it will take about four years for Europe to get out of its dependence on Russian gas," he estimated.
Western leaders have been crisscrossing the world in search of alternative gas sources, traveling as far as Azerbaijan, Algeria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but producers other than Russia do not have the necessary quantities to replace shortfall from Russia, Ernst said.
Germany, for one, does not have any LNG terminals and its gas reserves fell in June despite efforts to cut back consumption. German energy giant Uniper has activated its last credit line worth $2 billion, pending a rescue plan from the state to compensate for the declines in Russian gas.
"It is in the current state of things impossible to do without Russian gas. And it's not just Germany and the Central European countries that are stuck. Italy or France will be affected by ricochet. Despite the speeches of unity in Europe, we can fear an ‘every man for himself’ this autumn," the expert warned.
Russia slashed Nord Stream 1 supplies to the EU and placed the gas link under maintenance in July after Canada refused to give a repaired turbine back to Gazprom. Maintenance is set to end on Thursday, but the European Commission announced that it was preparing for the worst possible scenario of a gas cutoff in the event that the pipeline did not restart.