"I think what we are seeing is typical jockeying for position by individual politicians who would like to run for president sometime. More importantly, I think we are seeing various wealthy donors attempting to gain early influence in the 2024 Democratic campaign. At this time, I still believe Joe Biden will run again in 2024," says Ron Jacobs, US author and analyst.
CNBC revealed on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris and Governors Gavin Newsom and Jared Polis are among a group of Democrats who "started to rub elbows with the influential people" who could potentially sponsor their 2024 runs. Harris has recently been in touch with her allies who previously organized her election campaigns as well as with wealthy donors. When asked by the press about her meetings, the vice president said she plans to run on Biden’s ticket in 2024.
Gavin Newsom and Jared Polis are due to attend an event arranged by Heather Podesta, the longtime lobbyist and Democratic Party fundraiser. Up to 125 people are expected to attend the gathering, including super-rich Democratic donors. CNBC also cited a Wall Street executive who raised money for Biden’s 2020 campaign as saying that Harris and Newsom had reached out to him in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden's approval ratings are continuing to plummet. His economic approval dropped from 35% in April to 30%, which is a new low, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey. A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS puts Biden's approval rating at 38%, with 62% disapproving.
"Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are being smart," says John Tures, a political science professor at LaGrange College in Georgia. "In America, electoral fundraising is a permanent feature of our politics. You need to be fundraising years in advance, not the year before the election. You have to be prepared, in case Biden doesn't run for reelection, or someone else jumps in. I would be surprised if either of them primaried Biden, unless his approval ratings are in the 20s."
Tures expects Harris, Newsom and the others "are preparing for anything for 2024, but also need to be ready to run in 2028, no matter what happens in 2024."
"These candidates are all pretty much the same politically," echoes Jacobs. "They lean to the right side of the Democratic Party. Their allegiance, like Biden's, is historically to corporations and the financial industry. Personality-wise, none of them are particularly unique. Harris would have to really step up if she wishes to succeed."
Kamala Harris' approval rating has been declining together with that of Joe Biden. According to RealClearPolitics Average, 38.3% approve of the vice president, while 52.4% respondents hold unfavorable views about her performance.
However, the Democratic Party's left wing could pose a challenge to Biden, according to Tures, who refers to figures like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. "If it's someone more obscure, it probably won't cause a problem for Biden," the political scientist forecasts.
Jacobs appears to share Tures' stance:
"At this point in time, I don't know who a viable Democratic competitor to Biden would be," Jacobs says. "The nature of things these days moves too fast to predict even one year into the future. I would like to see someone from the left of the party run. Bernie Sanders would still be the best from that part of the party, but he may not be interested. Any left-leaning candidate will be able to build on the popularity of the Sanders platform while simultaneously pointing out the failure of Biden to implement most elements of the platform he incorporated into his campaign."