Sputnik spoke to psephologist Vinod Kumar Shukla to talk about the strategy the BJP followed in announcing its candidates for the polls, and why it has an edge over the Opposition.
Sputnik: What strategy did the BJP follow in fielding its presidential and vice-presidential candidates?
Vinod Kumar Shukla: In the last presidential election, the BJP fielded a Dalit candidate to consolidate votes from that community and the party was successful. This time it went for a candidate from a tribal community with a few agendas in mind.
First and foremost was to consolidate tribal voters. Second, it wanted to stifle the conversion agenda of Christian missionaries.
Apart from this, we need to understand that by fielding Murmu as its presidential candidate, the BJP is trying to target the tribal vote bank in those states where it is not in power, such as in the states of Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal.
Murmu belongs to the Santhal tribe and it is the third-largest scheduled tribe community in India. By fielding a woman from the Santhal tribe, the BJP is trying to spread its wings into the non-BJP ruled states. Not only this, the BJP has also succeeded in breaking the unity of the Opposition by fielding a female candidate, as we have already seen that cross-voting has happened in the presidential poll and a lot of non-BJP states extended their support to Murmu.
As far as its strategy for the vice-presidential election is concerned, the BJP understood that votes of the Jat community will be crucial in the 2024 parliamentary elections as well as Rajasthan State Assembly elections in 2023.
So by fielding [Jagdeep] Dhankhar as its vice-presidential candidate, the BJP has tried to consolidate the voters in three states – Rajasthan (Dhankhar’s home state), Haryana and Uttar Pradesh (where the Jat population is particularly high).
Along with this, Dhankhar’s candidacy has overturned plans by Akhilesh Yadav, head of the [Uttar Pradesh main opposition party] Samajwadi Party, to pacify Jat voters by backing Jayant Chaudhary, who belongs to the community, to be nominated as a member of the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of Parliament).
Sputnik: How did Dhankhar’s candidacy help to maintain the BJP's social engineering?
Vinod Kumar Shukla: Well, I don’t think that the BJP has tried to engage in any social engineering through Dhankhar, as the electoral college for the vice-presidential election is different from the presidential poll.
Parliamentarians of both houses and legislators from the state vote In the presidential election, whereas only parliamentarians vote in the vice-presidential poll.
If you consider the total number of parliamentarians, then the BJP-backed candidate Dhankhar has a clear edge over the Opposition-backed [Margaret} Alva. The BJP doesn’t even have to ask other parties for support.
So, there is no social engineering agenda in the vice-presidential election. The BJP has rather started working on its plan for the 2024 Parliamentary elections.
Sputnik: Will it give an edge to the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections in some of the states?
Vinod Kumar Shukla: Not only in the upcoming state assembly elections but, most importantly, in the 2024 Parliamentary polls.
As I said earlier, Murmu’s candidature will help the BJP in consolidating tribal as well as female voters, and Dhankhar’s candidature will help it to consolidate Jat community votes and farmers' votes.
With Dhankhar’s candidature, I am pretty sure that the BJP will sweep the Jat land (region) in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 General Assembly elections.
We can say that the BJP's strategy has backed the Opposition into a corner as it has succeeded in pulling the rug under their attempt to be united.
Sputnik: Why do you think the Opposition could not unite to take on the BJP and where did it fail?
Vinod Kumar Shukla: The main reason for the divided Opposition is the leadership. There is a major leadership crisis as a lot of regional leaders - for example, West Bengal state chief Mamata Banerjee, Telangana state chief K. Chandrashekar Rao, and some others - aspire to lead the [entire] Opposition. .
Some of the parties have even tried to corner the country’s age-old party Congress. But they should understand one thing that there can be no Opposition without Congress.
As far as the Opposition's failure is concerned, I think the major reason for it is that it doesn’t have any plan.
The BJP remains on election mode all the time whereas the Opposition gets ready for the elections after the elections are announced.
The BJP is a forward-looking party and plans its strategy in advance and the Opposition is not able to understand when to act.
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