Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, a visiting professor of energy economics at the ESCP Business School in London, explains how anti-Russia sanctions have backfired on the West and why there will be less unity among EU members each time a proposal to stop buying energy from Russia is made.
Sputnik: Do you believe President Biden can keep the allies united on the gas issue?
Mamdouh G. Salameh: When the history of the Ukraine conflict is eventually written, history and historians will judge the United States very harshly as the real provoker of the conflict. The conflict could have been totally avoided if the United States-led NATO agreed to address Russian security concerns vis-à-vis NATO’s encroaching towards Russia’s borders in a statesman-like manner. Instead, the United States and NATO have been arming Ukraine to the teeth since 2014.
The Ukraine war is the United States’ war on Russia and by extension China. Its war aims are to weaken Russia as a credible and rising superpower under President Putin, slow down the transformation of the World Order from a unipolar system led by the US to a multipolar system and sow dissent between China and Russia in an attempt to undermine their strategic alliance.
And while the United States is already losing this war, the ultimate loser as usual will be the European Union (EU).
The EU is in a real muddle about what policies to adopt to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and oil exports. It is high time for the EU to understand that Russian gas supplies are irreplaceable now or in 20 years from now and that the more sanctions it imposes on Russia the deeper the economic hole into which it digs itself.
The call by the EU Secretariat to members to reduce gas consumption by 15% will fail miserably and won’t enable the EU to build up its gas storage by 80%-90% by November. One noticeable trend emerging within the EU is friction and dissent among its members every time a new proposal is suggested to reduce dependence on Russian gas.
The dissension among the EU members over gas policies is so intense that neither President Biden nor the EU Secretariat can keep the allies united on the gas issue.
The maximum LNG the United States and Qatar could supply the EU is estimated at 30 billion cubic meters (bcm). This is less than 14% of what Russia supplies in normal circumstances.
Sputnik: Can Europe stand united amid the energy crisis?
Mamdouh G. Salameh: I don’t think that Europe could stand united amid the deepening energy crisis. Dissension and frictions among the EU members are expanding and increasing in ferocity every time a proposal to reduce dependence on Russian gas and oil is introduced and every time new harsher sanctions against Russia are imposed.
By the time the Ukraine conflict is over, the EU will be an emaciated and divided organization and its economy virtually on the verge of collapse.
Sputnik: What will the European countries eventually choose, in your view – following through with Washington's narrative and enduring the total collapse of the European economy and energy security, or protecting the needs of European citizens?
Mamdouh G. Salameh: I have always maintained that the EU is a real economic giant but a dwarf in geopolitical and strategic matters. Its Achilles heel is that it has let itself get under the thumb of the United States.
The only way the EU could stand on its feet is to stand up to the United States in matters of national interests and start to look after its own interests.
This translates in my view to reversing its stand on the Ukraine, lifting the sanctions against Russia, and accepting that its energy fate is tied to Russia.
Sputnik: Amid the cuts in gas supplies from Russia and European countries still pushing for hard sanctions against Moscow, will Europe have enough gas for the near future and for the winter season?
Mamdouh G. Salameh: Not a single gas producer or a group of producers, including the United States, Qatar, Australia, and Algeria combined, can replace Russian gas supplies now or for the foreseeable future. Moreover, there are no alternatives to Russian gas.
Against this background, Europe won’t have enough gas in storage for this coming winter. Severe rationing, soaring energy bills, and civil riots could become commonplace.
Sputnik: How will the energy crisis in Europe influence energy prices in the US? Why is the West engaging in such self-damaging policies?
Mamdouh G. Salameh: Every time the United States and the EU impose more sanctions against Russia and make decisions on reducing their dependence on Russian gas and oil supplies, prices skyrocket further, imposing a crippling financial burden on their economies, adding to an already rampant inflation and plunging their economies deeper into the red. In a nutshell, those imposing the sanctions are the ones paying a disastrous price while those on whom the sanctions are imposed are raking in cash.
The West, led by the United States, always wanted to be the top dog. Therefore, It can’t accept the fact that a new world order is already replacing the old one and being ushered by the Chinese-Russian strategic alliance.
The US economy is already having to deal with a rampant inflation of 9%-10% which will plunge it into a very deep economic hole whilst the EU is headed towards a very harsh recession, if not collapse.
Russia’s energy card is far more powerful than even hydrogen bombs. It will bring Western economies to their knees unless they reverse course and accept a peaceful settlement over Ukraine in which Russia’s concerns are accepted and respected.