Much ado has been made about Harriet Hageman’s Tuesday victory over Cheney in the Wyoming Republican primary election, especially the fact that Hagemen was endorsed by Trump. However, experts told Sputnik on Wednesday that Cheney's loss was due to her own missteps and that the successes of Trump-endorsed candidates in the primaries won’t necessarily translate into victory in the November 2022 elections.
In the Tuesday vote, Cheney was trounced by Hageman, an attorney who was endorsed by Trump and repeats his claims about the 2020 election being stolen by Democrats. The incumbent candidate received just 28.9% of the vote, while Hageman got 66.3%; a third candidate, Anthony Bouchard, received 2.6% of the votes.
Hageman is just the latest in a slew of candidates backed by Trump to zip past their competitors in primary races across the country.
“The press is overplaying the Trump power vote in this midterm election,” Professor David Woodard, Clemson University political scientist and former political consultant for Republican congressmen, told Sputnik on Wednesday.
“The old adage is that ‘All politics is local.’ When a congresswoman like Liz Cheney alienates her base, she loses. You can't win an election in a Republican primary by asking Democrats to crossover and vote for you. The turnout for primary elections in both parties is quite low, but that is where the power is in American politics. You have to win the loyalists before you can win in a general election. Hageman was endorsed by Trump, but she would have won if she hadn't been endorsed.”
“Trump will continue to claim victory in every case where a candidate he supports wins, but his are hollow victories,” he noted.
“Voters are independent, and they don't like to take their cues from past politicians. People are deeply troubled about their country and its political institutions. They know that a divisive Republican president and Congress are a death sentence for their party. If they can deliver a united government in 2024 that solves problems like inflation, foreign political power and immigration, they could become the majority party for some time. If they fail, and Donald Trump might be a reason they fail, then they will avoid him.”
Matthew Wilson, associate professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told Sputnik that while Trump supporters are the largest faction of the GOP, “his endorsement remains powerful - though not foolproof - in Republican primaries.” For now at least, it is dangerous to be a Republican lawmaker seeking reelection and also an outspoken Trump critic.
“Trump's endorsement of Hageman was helpful, but probably not critical in this race. Liz Cheney's high-profile crusade against Donald Trump attracted plenty of attention on its own, and most of that attention was negative among Republican primary voters. Among Republican primary voters, the January 6 investigation is largely regarded as irrelevant at best, and a politically-motivated witch hunt at worst,” Wilson said.
Wilson noted that primaries can be especially misleading because primary voters tend to “represent the ‘die-hards’ in each party,” which in the GOP are largely Trump loyalists.
“The problem for Trump and the Republicans is that the Republican primary electorate is not the nation as a whole,” Wilson said. “Trump's involvement in various races around the country has saddled the party with multiple weak nominees who are trailing their Democratic opponents in very winnable races. So all of Trump's ‘winning’ in GOP primaries may prove pretty ephemeral come November.”
What of 2024?
However, now that she’s lost her bid to stay in Congress, Cheney told NBC News that running against Trump in 2024 is “something that I’m thinking about.” She called the real estate mogul “a very grave threat and risk to our republic,” and said defeating him will require “a broad and united front of Republicans, Democrats and independents - and that’s what I intend to be part of.”
Woodard told Sputnik that the outcome of the November 2022 elections will likely determine the tone of the 2024 race, especially if the GOP takes back both houses of Congress.
“If the GOP controls Congress, then in 2024 the GOP party regulars will want a president who can work with the legislature,” he predicted.
“I do not think that Donald Trump has a good record of working with other people, especially Congress, so I think most Republicans have a ‘wait and see’ attitude about Trump and the presidential race in 2024 after this fall. Liz Cheney will lead the anti-Trump crowd in the Republican party, but the people who come to see her may be small. A crowd size does not show political sentiment. People may not go hear Liz Cheney, and still vote against Trump as the nominee.”