Sputnik asked Nandan Unnikrishnan, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi and one of India’s leading experts on former Soviet territory, about India's stance on the increased threats in the region and beyond.
Sputnik: How do you view the recent tension around Taiwan following the visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US lawmakers to the island? In what sense do those developments concern India?
Nandan Unnikrishnan: I think Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan undoubtedly contributed to escalating tensions in the Pacific and tension between China and the US. Given the kind of current state of the world, this was not required. So, I believe that her visit was a provocation. However, despite all this, I feel that China has overreacted to this by conducting military exercises and firing missiles. The action doesn’t reassure the world about China’s peaceful and harmonious rise as they themselves call it. If seen in from Indian context, it is a definitely a concern because we have tension with China on the border. Currently, China is a very serious adversary and these tensions need to be resolved in the interests of development of both countries.
Sputnik: How has China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) influenced Indo-Chinese relations? Are there any legitimate concerns for India with regard to the BRI, especially how it affects cooperation between India and Central Asian states?
Nandan Unnikrishnan: Well, if you notice the map, the BRI very neatly circumvents India. It does not really touch India anywhere. However, India does have a very serious objection because BRI goes through disputed territory in Jammu and Kashmir. Currently, that part (of Jammu and Kashmir) is held by Pakistan but since it is disputed, China shouldn’t have been engaging in any activity in that area.
It further contributes to the view that India has that Pakistan is increasingly becoming a proxy state of China, becoming beholden to it and performing whatever role China wants it to do. As far as Central Asia is concerned, I think India will develop transit with the region but it will not be through the BRI [but] rather through the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
There are two to three routes, one is through Iran into Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and then into Russia. The other one could be via land from Iran into Azerbaijan in the north or through the Caspian Sea to Astrakhan then moving on to Russia or Central Asia. This is mainly because Pakistan doesn’t allow any transit through its territory for goods to or from India. So there are multiple opportunities open and India will definitely make an attempt to utilize these now and develop its relationship with Central Asian countries.
Sputnik: Given the recent developments around Ladakh and in the region in general, do you think that we may see a shift towards greater concerns about China than Pakistan, which has been India’s main enemy in the past?
Nandan Unnikrishnan: No I don’t think so. Rather, I believe that China has been the main adversary of India since 1962. It is just that the media has built up Pakistan as an arch enemy and it also likes to believe that it is equal to India. But that is not true. Barring parity in nuclear weapons, there is no level at which Pakistan is equal to India either in the size of the economy or in the population. So, I don’t think it would be right to describe Pakistan as the arch enemy of India. Pakistan is a proxy state for China and India views it in that light.
Sputnik: Despite concerns from India, a Chinese Navy vessel, believed to be a spy ship, visited the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota recently. What is your opinion on the matter?
Nandan Unnikrishnan: Well, China has its ambitions in the Indian Ocean and it wants to increase its influence. This is clear from the fact that it has built a naval base in Djibouti. So it will continue to make such attempts. However, it is up to India to find a suitable level to influence its neighbors and protect its interests. India has to protect its strategic space and it should take all measures to do that.
Sputnik: As we are witnessing debate on the future international order and the demise of the US as a hegemon, what is India's stance on the changing global order and what are the central pillars of India’s foreign policy in this regard?
Nandan Unnikrishnan: I think that the demise of the US as a hegemon is a debate that is taking place only in some countries. I don’t think that the debate is necessarily something that the world agrees on. As far as India’s foreign policy is concerned, I think its goal is to move towards a multi-polar world and obviously that starts with multi-polar Asia. However, while achieving this goal we need to ensure that all hegemonic interests in Asia are tackled and not allowed to rise. I believe that in order to make Asia multi-polar, all countries [need to] rise together, great powers [should] arrive at some accommodation in Asia so that it becomes a future center of prosperity in the world so that we can have the so-called Asian century takeover.
The views and opinions expressed in this interview are those of the expert and do not necessarily reflect the position of Sputnik.