A Gallup poll released Thursday, along with two other polls released earlier in the week, show that Biden’s approval rating has been increasing in August, but remains below 50%.
The Gallup poll shows that Biden’s approval rating now sits at 44% with 53% disapproving. While that is still far from where Democrats would want it to be if they hope to hold onto the House and Senate in November’s midterm elections, it is significantly better than last month, when only 38% approved of Biden’s job performance. It is his highest approval rating in a Gallup poll since August of last year, when it was 49%.
A Morning Consult-Politico Poll and a Reuters-Ipsos Poll also reflected growth in Biden’s popularity, sitting at 43% and 41%, respectively. According to FiveThirtyEight, which calculates an average of polls accounting for recency, sample size, and partisanship, Biden’s approval rating now sits at 41.7%, up from 37.5% in mid-July.
According to the Gallup poll, most of Biden’s increase is due to independents, whose approval rating of Biden rose from 31% to 40% during August. Democrat and Republican approval ratings of Biden remained largely unchanged, sitting at 81% and 4%, respectively (78% and 5% in July).
In the issue-by-issue questions in the poll, Biden scored highest in his response to the coronavirus, with a 58% total approval rating, including 20% of Republicans. That is by far his highest mark with the opposite party (the situation in Ukraine came in second with 10%). He also received favorable marks overall on the environment (50%) and education (46%).
The uptick in approval rating comes after a significant legislative victory for Biden: the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, a comprehensive spending bill that dealt with healthcare, climate, and taxes. It also came after Biden announced the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri, though it is unclear how much effect that had on the polls, Biden still ranks relatively low (41%) in approval ratings on foreign affairs.
It also comes at a time of lowering gas prices and inflation levels that while still near historically high levels year over year, decreased slightly in August. Despite this, Biden’s approval rating on the economy dropped five points compared to the same poll taken in July. It now sits at 31%.
All three polls were taken before the Biden administration announced that he had ordered the Department of Education to forgive $10,000 to $20,000 of student debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 a year. Democrats are hoping that move, along with falling gas prices and reduced inflation, will continue to buoy Biden’s numbers and help Democrats hold onto seats in November’s midterm election.
According to Gallup, Biden’s approval rating is now higher or equal to every president going into a midterm election since George W. Bush in 2002. The party of the sitting president tends to lose seats in the House of Representatives, an effect that is magnified when the president is unpopular. In 2018, when former President Trump had an approval rating of 41%, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House. In 2010, when former President Obama had the same approval rating Biden currently has, 44%, the Democrats lost 63 seats in the house.
It is not always a direct correlation. For example, in 2014 when Obama had a lower rating of 42%, Democrats only lost 13 seats. That is because a lot depends on how many seats the party has up for reelection and where those seats are. Seats residing in swing states or districts are more vulnerable than seats in distinctly blue or red areas.
According to FiveThirtyEight, there are 37 seats up for election in the House that are either toss-ups or lean slightly towards one of the parties.
One bad piece of news for Democrats is that Republicans are still more motivated to head to the polls. According to the Morning Consult-Politico poll, 54% of Democrats say they are very or extremely enthusiastic to vote in the midterm elections, compared to 60% of Republicans who indicate the same.