Expert Explains What Prompts India & China to Resolve Two-Year-Long Border Standoff in Ladakh

Until last week, Indian officials appeared to be increasingly irritated over the border stalemate with China, with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar accusing Beijing of violating the border agreement.

Apart from Ladakh, India and China have been engaged in a spat over Sri Lanka, with Delhi accusing Beijing of putting Colombo in a "debt trap" and expressing concerns over an alleged spy vessel docking at Sri Lanka's Hambantota port.

The Indian reactions came in response to an op-ed written by Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Qi Zhenhong, in which he slammed India for raising "groundless security concerns," eventually delayed the docking of the PLA ship in Hambantota.

Following a verbal duel, India and China unexpectedly announced a disengagement agreement on Thursday, under which they are to pull back troops and other military assets from the Gogra-Hot Springs area in contested Ladakh by Monday. They also agreed to dismantle temporary military infrastructure in the area.

Experts believe the agreement was actually a tactical move ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

"I think it is a tactical move by China so that President Xi Jinping is not refused a meeting by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the forthcoming SCO summit in Samarkand, scheduled for 15 and 16 September," Rumel Dahiya, an Indian Army veteran who served as defense attache to Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon, told Sputnik.

"Gogra-Hot Springs or Patrol Point 15 disengagement was in the offing for last one year. PLA has been reluctant to disengage as it believes the positions have a tactical advantage. Now some political signal may have led to this move," Rahul Bhonsle, military veteran and director of the Delhi-based Security Risk Asia, told Sputnik.

Bhonsle said that Prime Minister Modi and the Chinese president could not possibly meet in-person if the standoff remains.

The two countries have yet to announce officially if a meeting between Modi and Xi will take place in Samarkand. On Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said he had "no information to offer at this moment."

Government sources in New Delhi told Sputnik that PM Modi will arrive in Samarkand late on September 15, while his engagements are scheduled for the next day. A meeting with Xi "is not on the radar right now. It is very unlikely," an official added.

However, sources have not ruled out the possibility of a pull-aside between Modi and Xi, adding "we have to wait for the completion of the disengagement process."

Amid the ongoing disengagement process, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the Indian Army of "illegally trespassing" the disputed boundary in 2020.

"China always conducts normal activities in line with agreements between the two countries. We also ask [the] Indian side to observe relevant agreements," Mao Ning said.

Nevertheless, both countries hope for positive results and seem ready to discuss the remaining issues along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

"India would not have budged from its firm and correct position unless China had agreed to the language that indicated readiness to discuss and resolve the rest of the issues in a cooperative framework. That, technically, keeps the likelihood of discussion on Depsang Plains open," Dahiya underlined.

Among the pending issues in the Ladakh region is the dispute over the Depsang Plains, a 972 sq. km plateau. India accused the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of blocking patrols on the Depsang patrol route after April 2020.

"China wants India to accept its de facto occupation of Depsang. India will [not] and cannot accept that position," Dahiya, who served in the Ladakh region for years, said.

A large part of the 832 km LAC in the eastern Ladakh sector is not demarcated on the ground, resulting in overlapping claims by India and China. India wants to resume patrolling in these overlapping areas, which have been under suspension since June 2020.