Biden May ‘Squeeze’ Ramaphosa to Alter Stance on Ukraine But South Africa is No ‘Pawn’, Profs Say

Joe Biden will likely try to employ a carrot and stick approach to get Cyril Ramaphosa to scrap Pretoria’s policy of neutrality on the Ukrainian security crisis, but is unlikely to meet with any significant success, South African observers say.

“There’s going to be a lot of pressing upon President Ramaphosa that the West is very unhappy with the [ruling African National Congress party’s] position on the war, and they will press on the dangers to investment in South Africa,” says Dr. Roger Southall, professor of sociology at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

Southall believes that President Ramaphosa personally will "listen to those arguments quite carefully," but will have problems selling them to his party, resulting in a stalemate.

The academic points out that for South Africa, the situation in Ukraine is really just a “side issue” domestically, with higher global energy prices of course “having an impact on the energy situation,” but balanced out by higher commodity prices, which the nation relies on for income from trade.

Southall expects the White House to hit Ramaphosa with “promises, promises, promises without anything firm behind them,” and to back them up with veiled threats.

“It’s all going to be very polite,” the scholar predicts. “Biden will be quite firm in saying that there may well be consequences if South Africa continues its what we might call ‘neutrality’ on the situation, and [Ramaphosa] will get very firm warnings with the implication that the flow of investment from the United States could dry up.”

Pressure may include threats to “squeeze” the country by threatening to bar goods like textiles from entering the US market at preferable rates made possible under the African Growth and Opportunity Act’ program, which would strike a blow to the fragile sector, according to Southall. That could also have knock-on effects for the textile industry in Lesotho, the landlocked kingdom encircled by South Africa, and result in more unemployment and consequently immigration to its richer neighbor, the observer fears.

The timing of Ramaphosa’s visit is highly significant, says Dr. Patrick Bond, a professor of political economy at the University of the Witwatersrand’s Wits School of Governance.

“The backdrop is a desperate geopolitical tug-of-war that, before this visit, was manifest in two public events: US [Secretary of State] Antony Blinken’s visit to Pretoria and Johannesburg last month, during which he was told not to be a bully by South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, and the G7 meeting in Germany in late June, which featured a special invitation from the German hosts to President Ramaphosa,” Bond says.

The latter meeting “came three days after the BRICS leaders’ virtual summit, one which empowered Russia insofar as it highlighted new strategies to withstand US economic sanctions,” the professor says.

And while the BRICS may be an “ineffectual body” as far as Pretoria is concerned, “full of promising anti-unilateral sentiment but little follow-through” in its present form, this could change by the time South Africa assumes the bloc’s presidency in 2023, and as traditional US allies Argentina, Egypt and Indonesia line up to join, Bond argues.

“The stakes are high, reminiscent of Cold War leveraging, and Ramaphosa –who has for at least 30 years leaned to the West politically – no doubt aims to maintain South Africa’s neutrality in relation to Ukraine,” the academic stresses, suggesting the politician may be hoping to become a mediator in the Ukrainian crisis to repeat his successful mediation in Northern Ireland in the late 1990s.

Pretoria has its own unique perspective on the Ukrainian security crisis, and its position is based in part on the nation’s own historical experience, and in part on its interaction and cooperation with both the US and rising global powers, says Dr. Suzanne Graham, an associate professor at the University of Johannesburg’s Department of Politics and International Relations.

“South Africa’s fallback position on international conflict is to speak from its own experience, and inclusive political dialogue and a negotiated settlement helped South Africa in its transition period from the evils of Apartheid to a democratic system of governance. South Africa is open about being against any nation invading another sovereign territory, because it believes in a rules-based international system, but it is also aware of not being used as a pawn in political machinations either,” Graham argues.

The country “is a member of BRICS and it is also an important partner of the US in terms of trade and other links, so South Africa has widespread interests that it also needs to protect,” the academic explains.

Professors Southall and Bond hint that there’s little to be gained by Washington in pressuring South Africa into submission on Ukraine anyway, aside from some symbolic diplomatic victory, given that economic relations between Moscow and Pretoria are limited, and trade between the two major emerging economies has yet to reach even a billion dollars.

“There are more warm words than actual serious economic engagement,” Southall says, pointing to the paltry Russian foreign direct investment figures in South Africa, and the collapse of the nuclear energy deal that was being negotiated by Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma.

“Since that collapse, I think there is less prospect of cooperation. Whether that nuclear deal could be revived is another issue. But I think all the indications are that it won’t be because Cyril Ramaphosa seems destined to win the leadership again in December. And I think he is well aware that most opinion is that doing a deal with Russia on nuclear reactors is unaffordable for the country, even if it were to be the right way to supply energy in this country, which is much needed,” the professor says.

Bond, for his part, points out that leading South African enterprises have already divested from Russia amid the crisis, “including those with both Western and Chinese investments like the largest firm, Prosus/Naspers, former owner of [Russian internet giant] mail.ru.”