Crime and Inflation Creating Difficult Headwinds for Democrats Ahead of Midterms, Observers Say

"Issues like crime and immigration issues at the southern border, as well as inflation pose a broader threat to individuals than restrictions on abortion," says Robert Shapiro, a Columbia University professor specializing in American politics. "There is more bad news than good news for voters because of these issues, all the more so in terms of how they are framed in the media. This is bad news for the Democrats since they are in control of the governments, except for the courts, and will be held accountable on these issues at the upcoming election – where the incumbent party in the White House normally does not do well as a matter of course."

Last year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) revealed that the US had experienced its largest-ever recorded annual growth in murders, with the national murder rate rising almost 30% in 2020, which is the biggest increase in six decades. Even Jen Psaki, Biden's former press secretary, has recently acknowledged that the Democratic Party is vulnerable on the issue of crime.

Likewise, inflation in the US is still staying at a 40-year high despite the Federal Reserve's repeated interest rate hikes. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting, with Fed Reserve chair Jay Powell projecting an additional 1.25 percentage points' worth of increases this year. These interventions are likely to backfire on the labor, housing and stock markets, warn economists, as cited by the New York Times. “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t," Powell admitted at a news conference last week.

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The Democratic Party's attempt to divert public attention to issues such as abortion or the Ukraine crisis has not worked, according to the observers.

"Everyone likes Ukraine, [but] the problem is that no one cares about foreign policy when they are filling up their gas tank," remarks Professor David Woodard, Clemson University political scientist and former political consultant for Republican congressmen.

On the other hand, even though the US Supreme Court's decision to reverse Roe v Wade on abortion did lead to protests across the country, the issue hasn't attracted a lot of attention and has been largely eclipsed by other, more pressing issues.

When it comes to crime, "the Republican Party is usually seen as more 'law and order' oriented than Democrats, so it is not surprising that as crime becomes more of an issue for voters that it does not bode well for Democrats," says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.

In addition to that, "the Democrats are going to pay a price for the visible ‘woke’ rhetoric," Woodard notes, in an apparent reference to the "defund the police" movement which gained momentum after the death of African American citizen, George Floyd, in police custody in May 2020.

"The woke issue plays into this in terms of crime and immigration and more direct racial and civil rights issues," explains Shapiro. "Democrats in defending rights and liberties are perceived as soft on crime and the immigration threat, and threaten white identity when it comes to race."

Analysis

Why Biden's Latest Approval Rating Surge May Be Just a Mirage

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Biden's Low Rating Threatens to Sink Dems

Meanwhile, the survey indicated that 39% of Americans approve of Joe Biden's job performance, while 53% disapprove. The numbers poured cold water on earlier reports discussing an apparent surge of the president's approval rating from 38% in July to 44% in August, as measured by Gallup. This is also a warning signal for Democrats, according to the observers.

"The midterm elections are usually seen as a referendum on the current president's performance," says Hagle. This year, that generally means that Republicans should do well in the elections. Given how evenly the two chambers of the US Congress are split, it could very well mean that Republicans will win a majority in both. One additional thing to note here is that it's not the president's approval rating per se that is the problem for Democrats. That is mainly an indicator of how well voters think the administration is doing overall. In other words, Biden's approval rating is a reflection of how well voters think he and his party are doing and what we might expect in terms of the election."

Furthermore, the poll found that among Democrat-leaning respondents, 56% would prefer the Democratic Party to nominate a different candidate in 2024, compared to 35% who are on board with Biden running again. The survey's findings show that the Dems fear that Joe Biden would lose in 2024, according to Hagle.

"The poll results suggest that Democrats realize Biden isn't doing a very good job in terms of either achieving his policy priorities or dealing with some current problems (inflation, border crisis, crime, etc.) and might like a stronger candidate," he says. "To some extent, this is what happened in the 1980 presidential race. Jimmy Carter was not seen as very effective and got a fairly strong challenge in the primaries by Ted Kennedy. Carter still won the nomination but was easily defeated by Reagan in the general election."

On the other hand, some Democrats are likely worried that it would further weaken their party if there's a nomination fight with an incumbent president, suggests the political scientist. Given these concerns, the goal then would be to try to convince Biden to not run for reelection, he assumes.

It's unclear whether the Dems clearly understand that most "middle voters are usually motivated by 'kitchen table' issues such as jobs, the economy, and health care," the professor notes, citing Bill Clinton's famous catchphrase: "It's the economy, stupid."

"The strategy seems to be to motivate their base with issues such as abortion or promoting concerns about Trump and to hope that the usual drop in voter turnout in midterms elections does not occur. Given current poll results, that strategy does not seem to be working," Hagle concludes.