"Assuming the Democrats have not found an effective way to rig the looming 2022 elections (which may not be a safe assumption), I believe they are facing an epic defeat, akin to losses suffered by Bill Clinton in the 1996 election and by Barack Obama in the 2010 election," argued Charles Ortel, a Wall Street analyst and investigative journalist.
Last month, the US press speculated that the Dems had managed to improve their positions ahead of the midterms. Mainstream media also told how President Joe Biden saw his approval rating jump from 38% in July to 44% in August, the highest this year, according to Gallup surveys. However, by the end of September, it had become clear that it was too early for Democrats to pop the champagne: a recent ABC/Washington Post poll indicated that Republicans are gaining momentum, with just 39% of US citizens approving of Biden's job performance on crime and inflation.
"The most important issue is economic security and outlook – on this alone, the Democrats are doomed," Ortel explained. "Workers in the public sector may be somewhat insulated from economic headwinds, but the majority of workers in the US operate in the private sector where their after-tax wages are not keeping pace with rampant inflation. Moreover, private sector employers are already cutting employment levels, even in high tech industries, so the majority of private sector workers are correctly anxious about whether they will keep their jobs."
26 September 2022, 19:42 GMT
Other Winners & Losers
Not only are Democrats likely to lose their influence in the next Congress and Senate, but also Washington insiders in both parties who have happily kept their own jobs but failed to advance national economic interests, according to the Wall Street analyst.
Ortel forecast that establishment politicians may find their power "clipped by mavericks who are catering to the growing slice of independent voters." The crux of the matter is that US independents are "tired of big party donor corruption and the politics as usual which has enriched elites since 1989 as multinational enterprises and billionaires embraced unregulated globalism," he explained.
Meanwhile, "country club Republicans," including "never-Trumpers," are also set to lose influence following the looming November 2022 elections, according to Ortel.
These trends are largely absent from mainstream surveys, which is understandable, the analyst argued, citing three major reasons.
Firstly, polls should target likely voters in relevant districts and states and these estimates must sample correct proportions of Democrats, Republicans and independents, which is itself a difficult task and even reputable entities "likely do not capture [the] underlying reality."
Second, Joe Biden's demonization of MAGA Republicans, which has been echoed by his Democrat colleagues, means that poll respondents who are critical of the Biden administration are not likely to tell the whole truth about their concerns over the telephone.
Finally, many pro-Biden candidates are reportedly weak and doing poor jobs "campaigning" against challengers who are charged up, energized and attracting boisterous crowds of supporters, according to Ortel.
Americans Have Lost $4.2K in Income as Crippling Inflation Under Biden Wipes Out Trump Gains - Study
24 September 2022, 05:43 GMT
Democrats Seeking Alternatives for 2024
While facing a potential defeat, the Democratic Party is by no means united, with various internal "clans" apparently considering an alternative to Biden for the 2024 race, according to the analyst.
On the one hand, Barack Obama is trying to play a "king-maker" role, while on the other, George Soros, Mark Zuckerberg and other billionaire Democrats are striving to find a new face of the Democratic Party. While the list of potential candidates includes Gavin Newsom, Beto O'Rourke and other younger alternatives, none of them has the gravitas required to lead the US back from the “abyss” in which it now struggles, Ortel noted.
Hillary Clinton also appears willing to throw her hat into the ring. On October 2, veteran political consultant Dick Morris, a former aide to President Bill Clinton, suggested that Hillary may enter the race as a "moderate" choice for Democrats. He noted that she is "dusting off" her husband’s playbook by criticizing the Biden administration’s "open borders."
"If Hillary Clinton were 65 years old today and blessed with a likeable personality, perhaps she might, in theory, be a viable candidate for 2023/24. But she will turn 75 on 26 October 2022 and she has displayed, over decades, a nasty temperament, while failing to rack up any convincing accomplishments for the American people, even as she and her family enriched themselves and advanced their political standing all the while operating a ‘false-front’ public charity whose activities certainly will remain in focus should she throw her hat into the presidential sweepstakes yet again," said Ortel, who has been conducting a private investigation into the Clinton Foundation's alleged fraud for several years.
Despite the analyst not seeing Hillary surviving the Democratic primaries or a general election, he suggested that she and her backers "may believe she could be effectively moved into the executive branch before 2024, should Biden and/or Harris be forced to withdraw in consequence of expected bruising Democrat defeats in November 2022."
Trump Factor
The upcoming midterms are likely to determine whether Donald Trump will embark on a new presidential campaign. Last week, former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway said that the former president could announce his 2024 presidential election plans by Thanksgiving (November 24). According to Axios, Conway's remarks suggest that Trump would wait until after the 2022 midterms, "which have been seen as a potential referendum" on the ex-president by top Republicans.
"I suspect Donald Trump will promptly announce his candidacy following the November 2022 election, particularly if Democrats are resoundingly defeated, as I expect in a fair contest," projected Ortel. "Should he announce and remain in strong health, he will likely emerge victorious in November 2024, even as Democrats mount all sorts of legal challenges and dirty tricks against him."
However, should Trump fail to re-enter elective politics for some reason, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could emerge as a strong contender with Mike Pompeo being an able vice presidential candidate, according to Ortel.
"Moreover, the Republicans have a deep bench of candidates who might ultimately join a Trump or DeSantis-led administration as cabinet members, unlike the motley crew presently serving the Biden-Harris administration," the Wall Street analyst underscored.
Axios highlights that Trump's announcement could shift the scope of the 2024 race. And Trump's decision will largely depend on how the 2022 midterms pan out, making the November elections nothing short of fateful for the future of US politics.