A month out from the election, Republicans are leading Democrats in polling for both Houses of Congress, and in the gubernatorial races, an aggregate of polling by Real Clear Politics shows.
The latest polling finds the Senate leaning 47-46 in favor of the GOP, with 44 seats deemed safe or not up for Republicans, 42 safe or not up for Democrats, and 7 deemed toss ups in races in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada. 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for grabs in next month’s vote.
In the House, the Republicans currently enjoy an estimated 40 seat lead over Democrats, with 220 districts leaning GOP, 180 Democrat, and 35 deemed toss ups (toss up races include electoral districts in Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Maine).
The Republicans are also leading in the governors races, according to RCP polling data, with 25 races deemed to be leaning Republican, 15 Democrat, and 10 toss ups.
The aggregator’s 2022 generic national congressional vote shows Republicans with a sliver of a 0.7 percent lead over Democrats, with President Biden’s approval/disapproval rating averaging at 43/53.1 percent, and ‘direction of the country’ polling showing 66 percent of would-be voters saying the country is on the ‘wrong track’, with 27.3 percent saying the US is heading in the ‘right direction.’
An Ipsos/Axios poll conducted last week found that 53 percent of potential voters were concerned that the election could lead to gridlock. Those who expressed fears of Democrats remaining in charge cited the economy, inflation, unceasing investigations into former president Donald Trump, declining confidence in government, increasing political violence and insufficient checks and balances on the White House if the president’s party remains in charge. Those who fear Republicans similarly listed inflation and the economy, political violence and declining confidence in government as problems that would get worse, plus gridlock between the executive and legislative branches, excessive focus on divisive social issues, and more attention in a congressional setting to Trump’s allegations of fraud in the 2020 presidential race.