On Tuesday, the US will vote in midterm elections that will define the makeup of the next Congress. Here’s a closer look into the event.
What Are the Mid-terms?
The US legislature, Congress, is divided between the House of Representatives – a lower chamber - which decides which laws are voted on, and the Senate – an upper chamber - that can approve or block those laws. Democrats currently hold slim majorities in both the House and the Senate.
Mid-terms are elections which are held during the middle of the presidential four-year term in office and are seen as an indicator of the population’s attitude to the policy pursued by the White House.
Who is Elected?
About one-third of the seats, namely 35, in the 100-member Senate along with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are typically up for grabs during the mid-terms.
Governorships and state legislatures, as well as local councils and school boards will also be contested across the US.
Who is Expected to Prevail on Tuesday?
Over the past two years, Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking votes have allowed Democrats not only to appoint their representatives to the highest positions in key congressional committees, but also to successfully implement initiatives endorsed by President Joe Biden.
This time, the struggle between Democrats and Republicans may end up with the latter gaining control of the House of Representatives. A recent poll conducted by Siena College revealed in this regard that at least 49% of Americans are ready to vote for Republicans, while 45% of respondents support Democrats.
A US media outlet suggested that the November 8 mid-terms might see Republicans win 216 seats in the House of Representatives and Democrats obtain at least 199. In the Senate, Republicans and Democrats are expected to get 20 and 12 seats, respectively, according to the outlet.
How Could Midterms Affect Biden?
Strange as it may seem, a rule of thumb regarding the mid-terms is that historically, the party that holds the White House typically tends to lose seats in the vote. This may become problematic for incumbent Joe Biden, whose approval rating has been running at less than 50% since last August.
If the Democrats win, it may help POTUS go ahead with his plans on climate change, as well as the expansion of state-run healthcare programs, the protection of abortion rights and the tightening of gun control. Thus far, however, all this agenda has, in fact, been stalled as Democrats are not in a hurry to give Biden a helping hand. The plans will most likely come to a full stop if Republicans prevail in the mid-terms.
Under such a scenario, GOP members are expected to be able to control investigatory committees so that they can wrap up a probe into the January 6, 2021 Capitol breach. On that day, a mob, including Trump supporters, attempted to prevent Congress from certifying the election win by Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
Republicans might also open new inquiries into more topics that interest them, like an investigation into the Chinese business dealings of Hunter Biden or the US troops’ chaotic withdrawal of from Afghanistan.
As far as Biden is concerned, a Republican victory in next week’s midterms will most likely mean that it would be harder for the 46th president to make new appointments, including to the US Supreme Court. POTUS’ foreign policy might also be hampered, including Washington’s military aid to Kiev amid Russia’s ongoing special military operation in the country.
When Will We Know Results?
There is a probability that we won’t know the winners of the 2022 midterms on election night, especially given the fact that states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania that are believed to be key to Senate control could take days to count all their votes.
Human error or technical difficulties can also add to delaying the announcement of the results, something that can also be affected by an election race being extremely close.