Midterm Outcome Could Steer Biden Re-Election Decision

Democrats are at risk of losing majorities in both chambers of Congress, with polls showing Republicans well-positioned to seize the House while control of the Senate remains a toss-up. The White House last month reportedly became increasingly worried that Democrats could lose control of Congress as Republicans maintained momentum in the polls.

Biden has repeatedly said he will run again, but has yet to make it official. The Washington Post reported that the president has been meeting with aides since September "preparing" the re-election campaign.

A dropbox is pictured ahead of the midterm elections at the City Hall in Mesa, Arizona, on October 25, 2022

However, a midterm disaster may have Biden facing threats from both without and within. Losing control of Congress will obviously hinder Biden's agenda as he squares off against Republicans, many of whom have vowed to impeach him.

A loss will also cause more consternation among those who made him the Democratic Party's nominee in the first place. Some experts say low poll numbers, health concerns and economic challenges have introduced doubt about whether Biden would be the party’s best candidate, despite his advantage as incumbent.

Midterm Omens

The midterm results will be highly significant to Biden as he mulls the future. For starters, they could serve as an indicator of Biden’s potential as a candidate in 2024, evidenced by an October Morning Consult poll that found one-third of voters saying they think "a lot" about the sitting president when casting midterm ballots.

And, heading into the midterms, most signals were not looking good. Biden’s job approval rating sat at 40%, as of Friday, according to Gallup. In comparison, during the same period of their presidencies, President Donald Trump’s job approval was at 42% and President Barack Obama’s at 45%.

A YouGov/The Economist poll released last week found that less than half of people who voted for Biden in 2020, 43%, support him running again.

Pre-midterm indicators so far provide little comfort. Pollsters in pivotal senate races are saying voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s job performance is one of the top factors fueling the Republican surge.

US President Joe Biden speaks about the administration's deficit reduction in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 21, 2022

In addition to being a referendum on his performance, the midterm outcome will also make clear to Biden the likelihood of boosting that performance in the next two years.

Like predecessors Trump and Obama, Biden was elected to office with his party controlling both chambers. Both Trump and Obama lost control of a chamber in their first midterms.

Delivering on Democrats’ agenda and Biden’s 2020 campaign promises is poised to be a critical task in cementing a 2024 re-election bid, but doing so will be made more difficult without full control of Congress.

Moreover, if Republicans win a majority in Congress they could begin investigations into members of the Biden administration. For example, US Senator Rand Paul has pledged to investigate pandemic-related policies of officials including presidential medical advisor Anthony Fauci.

Probes could also be launched into foreign business deals of Hunter Biden. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is suing the federal government over allegations that they colluded with social media companies to censor stories ahead of the 2020 election, including the Hunter Biden laptop story and the COVID-19 "lab leak" theory.

Biden himself acknowledged the worst-case scenario - that if Republicans win the House and Senate, they might impeach him.

"I don't know what the hell they're gonna impeach me for," Biden said at a rally in San Diego on Thursday.

Ousted From Within?

Biden is not the only one mulling the president’s future, for members of his own party will try to have a say in it. The midterm outcome will factor into their decision-making, on top of ongoing concerns over performance, health, and constant verbal gaffes.

"As for 2024, there are already signs that [Biden] is being eased from the ticket by members of his own Party – which surely must be done to have any chance of his party winning. Look at his poll numbers. They're horrible," Los Alamos Working Group Director Greg Mello told Sputnik.

Biden turns 80-years old on November 20, meaning he could be 86-years old by the end of his presidency if he were to run in 2024 and win.

"Biden’s mental capacity is obviously failing. As a result, he is not really in charge," Mello also said. "His ability to even finish this term really depends on the complicit silence of the news media regarding his confusion."

Trends Journal publisher and financial analyst Gerald Celente predicted that Biden will likely run in 2024 if he can still walk and talk at the same "bumbling" rate.

However, Democrats could choose to replace him with another candidate if the US economy dives into a deep recession, Celente added. In such an instance, Democrats would look for a candidate who can sell a vision of a rejuvenated economy, he said.

Dems' Worst Post-Midterm Nightmare

As Biden faces the prospect of the midterm results complicating his agenda going forward, the Democrats are focused on trying to ensure one person does not return to the White House.

Trump reportedly is looking to announce the launch of his 2024 presidential campaign on November 14, which could potentially be followed by a multi-day series of political events.

"In order to make our country successful, and safe, and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it [run for president] again," Trump said last week during a rally in Iowa. "Get ready!"

The midterms will provide Trump with indicators as well, in terms of knowing who controls Congress and his potential as a candidate based on the success of those he endorsed.

A Wall Street Journal poll released last week found Trump and Biden would be dead even in a hypothetical matchup, with 46% support each.

Trump maintains similar support to Biden for a re-election bid, with 28% and 27% support respectively, according to the YouGov/The Economist poll.

The symbols of the Democratic(L) (donkey) and Republican (elephant) parties are seen on display in Washington, DC on August 25, 2008.

Whereas a minority of people who voted for Biden said they would support him in a 2024 campaign, over half of people who voted for Trump in 2020, 55%, said they would support another run, the poll found.

However, Trump finds himself caught up in several legal battles at present time, including financial court cases in New York and a federal raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence.

A 2024 campaign would also come amid ongoing trials against those involved in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, for which Trump was investigated by a congressional panel.