Thirty-three-year-old Divya Sharma shifted from Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh state to Bengaluru in Karnataka upon realizing that her family's apple farming business might not be profitable enough in the future. Thus, she decided that it's better to take up a different job.
"Due to changing climate patterns and new taxes on apple packaging, my family will hardly make any profit in the business this year," Sharma, who now works at a bakery in Bengaluru, told Sputnik.
"Ten years ago, we used to deliver best quality apples. But over the past few years, the quality of our produce has changed due to less snowfall and increasing summer temperature, and non-seasonal rains," Sharma, who makes tarts and jams in the bakery, explained.
Approximately one-fifth of the state population is directly or indirectly linked to apple cultivation, manufacturing, or selling. Over 90% of the production goes to the domestic market.
In August, apple growers staged a massive protest against the state government, raising the goods and service tax (GST) on fruit packaging.
Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is ruling the Himachal state government, has tried to discuss the issues with fruit cultivators, the talks remain inconclusive.
Approximately 27 of the 68 state assemblies, including Shimla, Theog, Jubbal and Kotkhai, Kinnaur, Ani, Rampur, Banjar, and Rohru, are dominated by farmer families.
However, Ramesh Chauhan, a political scientist at Himachal Pradesh University, said though inflation and joblessness are the state's biggest concerns, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to be a favorite leader of the voters.
According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a think tank, the 2022 May-August unemployment report shows that more than 200,000 youth are unemployed which is nine percent of the total workforce.
"Issues like inflation and joblessness hardly get counted in state elections. Moreover, if you see the campaigning of the BJP, all top politicians from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Home Minister Amit Shah or Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Uttar Pradesh State Chief Yogi Adityanath, and others are holding rallies, small level campaigns, interacting with people in all constituencies," Chauhan said.
"However, in Congress, which is in opposition at present, only top politicians like Priyanka Gandhi Vadra have visited the state so far," Chauhan said.
Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi is not visiting Himachal Pradesh this time as he's busy with the Bharat Jodo campaign (Unite India Campaign, an on-foot journey to cover 3,570 kilometre distance across different states).
Many senior Congress members in Delhi have said that they're banking on boosting the public connection that matters most.
"Moreover, Himachal Pradesh has always seen fewer job opportunities due to its geographical condition. Hence, it would be interesting to see what percentage of people blame the BJP for unemployment," Chauhan said.
Local Connect
Mohit Pandey, a psephologist currently holding opinion polls in Himachal Pradesh, told Sputnik that in many constituencies, Congress has managed to localize the contest and counter the Modi factor.
He said in constituencies like Haroli, Dalhousie, Hamirpur, Mandi, and a few others, the Congress candidates are famous and accessible.
"Himachal is a hill state, with only 68 seats, even 100 votes can turn the result (tilting it either way) in many constituencies," Pandey explained.
However, Pandey said the BJP is well aware of these challenges and has come up with ways to tackle this situation.
In September, the BJP-led Himachal government cleared a bill to grant tribal status to the state's Hattee community, a demand pending for 50 years. The decision may help BJP gain five assembly seats — Sri Renukaji, Pachhad, Shilai, Paonta Sahib and Nahan directly.
"In all five constituencies, the BJP is facing a tough challenge from the Congress," Pandey said.
Similarly, the Haroli constituency's BJP government at the Centre announced a massive drug park project. In Dalhousie, the BJP is talking of opening a college in the area for higher education.
Haroli constituency, currently being represented by Congress lawmaker Mukesh Agnihotri, who's also the leader of the opposition in the state assembly.
He told Sputnik : "Modi is not the factor in the state. People are unhappy with the current BJP government. Modi is not a factor here. They can bring any number of stars they want, even Joe Biden, but change will happen. People will vote for Congress, this time."