Sputnik discussed the intricate details of the past midterm elections with Patrick Basham, head of Democracy Institute, a politically independent research organization based in Washington and London.
Sputnik: US bipartisan observers suggest that the expected "red wave" has not materialized. Would you agree that the Republicans "underperformed"?
Patrick Basham: In terms of voting, the red wave materialized exactly as we predicted. Our final Democracy Institute/Express.co.uk poll forecast the Republicans would win the popular vote by five percent. The Election Day exit poll also found a five percent win by the Republicans. With ballots still being counted in several western states, the Republicans popular vote lead is fluctuating between four and five percent.
What did not materialize is a red wave in congressional seats, which is a stunning and a statistically anomalous outcome. Historically, a Republican win by four to five points translates into 235 to 265 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2020, the Republicans lost to the Democrats by 3.1 percent in the popular vote. Yet, the Republicans gained 13 net House seats in that election. Hence, the expectation that a seven to eight point swing to the Republicans would result in a deluge of new Republican-held seats.
Sputnik: What could be behind less than expected gains for the GOP in major midterm sears?
Patrick Basham: The principal reason for the GOP's less than expected seat gains is the strategic approach adopted by the Democratic party's ongressional campaign.
Normally, it is the Republicans who produce the more efficient vote. That is, as their support is more evenly distributed around the country and within states than the Democrats' support, they win fewer seats by large margins than the Democrats but they secure a disproportionate number of narrow victories in close, competitive districts.
This year, the Democrats turned the Republicans' efficiency advantage on its head. It was their own midterms vote that was incredibly efficient, not the Republicans. In coordination with Big Tech, labor unions, and left-wing interest groups, the Democrats built and successfully employed a sweeping, all-encompassing voter identification and voter mobilization operation. Skillfully and creatively utilizing the latest digital marketing tactics and techniques, the Democrats were able to retain. dozens of competitive seats in swing congressional districts.
Normally, it is the Republicans who produce the more efficient vote. That is, as their support is more evenly distributed around the country and within states than the Democrats' support, they win fewer seats by large margins than the Democrats but they secure a disproportionate number of narrow victories in close, competitive districts.
This year, the Democrats turned the Republicans' efficiency advantage on its head. It was their own midterms vote that was incredibly efficient, not the Republicans. In coordination with Big Tech, labor unions, and left-wing interest groups, the Democrats built and successfully employed a sweeping, all-encompassing voter identification and voter mobilization operation. Skillfully and creatively utilizing the latest digital marketing tactics and techniques, the Democrats were able to retain. dozens of competitive seats in swing congressional districts.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at an America First Policy Institute agenda summit at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, July 26, 2022.
© AP Photo / Andrew Harnik
Sputnik: Some American commentators who set expectations high for the "red wave" now are claiming that former President Donald Trump is to blame for "bad endorsements." Are their criticisms justified in your opinion? Would the GOP perform better without Trump?
Patrick Basham: No, the GOP would not perform better without Trump. The criticism that Trump depressed the Republican vote is wrong. Republican candidates gained eight points over the past two years, which is a huge improvement.
The Trump bashing reflects the anti-Trump bias held by most media commentators, as well as Trump's longstanding critics within the Republican party. The “Trump failed” script was prepared before a vote was counted. Should the Republicans underperform, the critics were always going to blame Trump. Should the Republicans do extremely well, the critics would have claimed the results were proof the party no longer needed Trump. No matter the outcome, Trump would be the problem!
Sputnik: What's your take on how the midterms have been held? What's behind Arizona, Nevada and California's inability to count votes in time? What's behind these delays and are these delays typical for US midterm cycles?
Patrick Basham: The administration and conduct of the elections in several of the key Senate races, and in a host of competitive House races, in traditional Democratic states and congressional districts has been abysmal. These ridiculous counting delays in these races are not typical for midterm elections.
There are at least three reasons for this embarrassing and politically dangerous situation. First, the conduct of American elections has been overthought by technocratic experts who have introduced technology into the voting and ballot counting process that has made the process less efficient and more cumbersome and time-consuming.
Patrick Basham: The administration and conduct of the elections in several of the key Senate races, and in a host of competitive House races, in traditional Democratic states and congressional districts has been abysmal. These ridiculous counting delays in these races are not typical for midterm elections.
There are at least three reasons for this embarrassing and politically dangerous situation. First, the conduct of American elections has been overthought by technocratic experts who have introduced technology into the voting and ballot counting process that has made the process less efficient and more cumbersome and time-consuming.
Second, many of the people responsible for overseeing these elections are incompetent. For example, in Arizona the person whose day job is overseeing elections is Katie Hobbs, the Democratic candidate for Governor. The farcical failure on Election Day of one fifth of the electronic voting machines in heavily Republican areas, and the absurdly slow counting of ballots, are testament to her failure in her current job, which is a disastrous audition for her desired promotion to the position of Governor of her state.
Third, over the past few years Democratic politicians have successfully removed most of the constitutional safeguards and legal guardrails that would prevent the abuse of the vote-by-mail process, including the timely collection and counting of ballots.
The symbols of the Democratic(L) (donkey) and Republican (elephant) parties are seen on display in Washington, DC on August 25, 2008.
© AFP 2023 / KAREN BLEIER
Sputnik: Could one expect new scandals over alleged election irregularities given reports that voting machines in Arizona's Maricopa and New Jersey Mercer county were suddenly down, or that in Pennsylvania polling places abruptly ran out of paper and voters had to wait hours. Is it a coincidence that the same swing states, which were involved in 2020 election scandals, are in focus again?
Patrick Basham: Yes, it is scandalous that election irregularities, possibly widespread irregularities, occurred in the most important states. It is no coincidence that the very same swing states are involved, as they were two years ago.
Most obviously, the large number of mailed-in ballots in Arizona, California, and Nevada were ripe for widespread abuse in favor of Democratic candidates in both Senate and House races in those states.
It is quite revealing that, across the country, Republican candidates in states and districts that do not experience a high rate or volume of votes by mail gained an average of eight to 10 points over the 2020 election, as we predicted in our final poll.
However, Republican candidates in states and districts that feature a high rate or volume of votes by mail, such as Arizona, California, and Nevada, did not experience these gains compared with 2020. There is no logical explanation for this discrepancy other than the utilization, maximization, and exploitation of the vote-by-mail process by Democratic lawyers, campaign strategists, and elected officials.