The United States held its midterm elections last week, resulting in Democrats losing the House to Republicans but still keeping their narrow Senate majority. This outcome fell short of a strong wave of support for the GOP that was expected by many on the eve of the electoral contests as even the party's gains in the House were less than predicted.
One of the many issues in this year's midterms was the redrawing of the boundaries of congressional districts in the wake of the 2020 census. The practice varies from state to state, with some states giving the task to an independent panel but most have their state legislatures draw the lines.
Back in August, the Brennan Center for Justice published an analysis, stating that while congressional maps were tilted toward Republicans, both parties could potentially win a House majority.
Following election day, Michael Li, one of the authors, told NPR that the GOP had an advantage in terms of redistricting as they controlled 187 seats through state legislatures compared to Democrats' 75. According to Li, Republicans were able to create an advantage for their candidates in states like Texas, Georgia, Ohio, as well as Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis proposed a map that ended up giving the GOP four additional seats.
Nevertheless, the baked-in advantage that Republicans enjoyed, while helpful in some states, was not enough to net the party a blow-out victory due to other pertinent factors, such as high turnout, quality of candidates and the salience of the abortion issue during the campaign.
"I don't think redistricting played a major role in the midterm elections. There is some evidence that it had a role in a few states, most notably, Florida, in helping the Republicans make gains. But overall, the picture looks fairly stable and even," Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, said.
"Whatever hopes that Republicans had for major gains were checked by the relatively high turnout, the importance of abortion, and the poor quality of many — especially US Senate — candidates on the GOP side."
Robert Weissberg, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, noted that since "re-districting is done by the state legislature and most of these are Republican-controlled," the GOP's defeats are likely not due to the redistricting.
"I am sure that at least in some cases it made a difference but the courts have recently limited the most blatant gerrymandering, so the differences were probably small. You would thus need a very close inspection of the electoral map for an answer," Weissberg stated.
What Now?
The next time US citizens will go to the polls to elect their representatives is two years away, in 2024, alongside the presidential election.
Until then, there is not much that Democrats and Republicans can do, according to Singh, as "it was this year's elections that were key for any redistricting to take effect (it happens every ten years)." He added that the results for Senate and gubernatorial races showed candidate quality and issues can sway individual races.
When asked if there could be more aggressive redistricting by either party ahead of the next general election, Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history and the T.P. and J.C. Leonard chair of political science at Catawba College, North Carolina, drew attention to a US Supreme Court case that will have major ramifications for the matter.
14 November 2022, 20:25 GMT
Earlier in the year, the Supreme Court of North Carolina struck down a Republican-drawn congressional map that would have potentially given the GOP control over 11 out of 14 districts. In response, the state's lawmakers went to the US Supreme Court, invoking the so-called Independent state legislature theory that would make them the sole authority on the issue.
"I think the key factor in how aggressive the parties will be the upcoming US Supreme Court case, Moore v. Harper out of North Carolina, which asks the question: are state legislatures subject to other branches of state government, like the courts, in the redistricting process, or are state legislatures the only branch of government that has the power of redistricting and election laws, unless Congress intervenes," Bitzer explained.
He added that the court decision will be made next spring and "we’ll need to await the ruling from the nation’s highest court as to whether aggressive redistricting practices will be sanctioned or not."
Situations like the one in North Carolina are why some states have adopted the practice of having an independent redistricting commission to draw up congressional maps. This method is supposed to achieve a more fair outcome and avoid controversy. However, the experts have doubted that more states would turn to this practice in the future.
"While some states have adopted them, other states with one-party control will likely continue aggressive partisan gerrymandering to give their parties a skewed advantage, based on where the voters live and having sorted themselves," Bitzer said.
Singh, for his part, thinks that whether or not more states adopt non-partisan panels will ultimately depend on pressure from voters.
"Neither party has an interest in it, of course, but most neutral observers strongly favour these. We might see a few more states go this route, but probably not many," he concluded.