A poll commissioned by the Association of American Railroads (AAR) has revealed that the vast majority of voters, 92%, believe that preventing a railroad strike is important, including 71% who said it is “very important.”
More than 115,000 rail workers are threatening to strike if a deal cannot be negotiated by December 9. In September, the Biden administration arbitrated a tentative deal between the AAR and rail union leadership, temporarily halting a rail strike. However, four of the 12 major rail worker unions' rank-and-file members rejected the deal, leading to another stand-off.
At the heart of the dispute is the lack of paid personal leave for rail workers. While the tentative deal did provide more paid vacation time, it only included one day for paid personal or sick leave, up from zero under the previous collective bargaining agreement.
The AAR poll also found that 72% of voters believe Congress should step in if a deal is not reached in time and the same 72% felt that the tentative deal was fair when told it included an average of $160,000 total compensation when counting benefits.
Congress has the power to step in and force rail workers to accept a deal because of a 1926 law designed to prevent rail shutdowns. Rail workers argue the piece of legislation has lessened their leverage since the AAR knows Congress is likely to force staffers back to work.
If Congress orders the workers back and they strike anyway, it would be considered an illegal strike and workers would not be guaranteed rights normally afforded to striking employees, including unemployment benefits.
The poll, which was conducted by the AAR, did not inform respondents that rail workers would only receive one day of sick or personal leave. It did include an “opposing side” argument but did not state how much personal leave workers would receive under the tentative agreement.
Rail Strike Effect on US Economy
It has been estimated that a rail strike would cost the economy $2 billion a day. Over 40% of freight in the country is hauled by train. While some of that could be moved with trucks, there are not enough semi-trucks to make up the difference. The AAR estimates that 467,000 more trucks would be required to haul the materials currently carried by train.
The economic effects of a rail strike would be widespread. More than 30% of packaged food is carried by rail, and some raw ingredients such as grain and barley are almost entirely carried by rail. Livestock feed also depends on trains for its movement around the country, potentially putting entire herds at risk.
Additionally, commuter rails would be affected. Roughly half, and nearly all of Amtrak’s long-distance routes, use freight rails and would have to cease operations during a strike. In September, days before the strike was scheduled to begin before the tentative agreement, Amtrak halted all service to prevent stranding customers.