While protesting the results of the 2022 presidential election on Sunday, Bolsonaro followers stormed the National Congress building, Palacio do Planalto, one of the official palaces of the presidency, and the Supreme Court building in Brasilia.
Lula who was sworn in and started his third term as Brazilian president on January 1, called the attacks on the government buildings barbaric and ordered the use of federal forces to restore order in the capital. Police regained control of the buildings later in the day. On Monday, security forces in Brasilia launched an operation to disperse a protest camp located near the headquarters of the Brazilian armed forces.
Bolsonaro, who has been staying in Florida, also condemned the storming of the government buildings in Brasilia carried out by his supporters. Despite that, Democrat lawmakers Joaquin Castro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez urged the US government to "cease granting refuge to Bolsonaro" and extradite him.
Hour of Decision?
Lula, who previously led the country from 2003-2010 during the so-called "left turn" in Latin America, won the Brazilian presidential election in the runoff on October 30, defeating Bolsonaro by a close margin.
While his political comeback was cheered by many people as a welcome departure from right-wing Bolsonaro, his victory was much less decisive than projected by pollsters. Moreover, he still has to contend with Bolsonaro's Liberal Party having a significant presence in both chambers of the parliament, and a strong and energized right-wing movement that has already demonstrated that it will not suffer leftists gladly.
"[Lula's] new government will face a much harder domestic (and international) context than during his first two terms. The country is much more polarized, with strong supporters for the extreme right (neofascist) agenda. Either he confronts what happened with courage, or he will become hostage to the threat of new insurrections," Rafael Ioris, professor of Latin American history at the University of Denver, said.
This sentiment was echoed by Ednaldo Ribeiro, a political science professor at the State University of Maringa, who suggested that whether or not this kind of civil unrest repeats itself in the future depends on how the Lula government will choose to respond.
"An energetic punishment, rigorously based on the national rule of law, is indispensable for the definitive interruption of any coup ambition. This involves punishing the financiers of these actions and holding the hard core of Bolsonarism accountable, including Jair Bolsonaro himself. His extradition to Brazil is essential at this time and must be carried out as soon as possible," Ribeiro said, while also cautioning that "any attempt at amnesty for the coup leaders could be fatal for democratic stability in the coming years."
According to Lucio Renno, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia, in the past two months, there have been several other instances of domestic terrorism such as bomb threats, attacks against public transportation, as well as attempts at invading the federal police and illegal camping in front of the country's military headquarters with demands for a military coup.
Thus, while the recent outburst of civil unrest does stand out as the first time the three main federal buildings have been stormed by a right-wing movement, it is not a unique case in the grand scheme of things.
"It is likely that we see other cases of these attempts, of a smaller proportion, but that can inflict harm to the population in an exercise of destabilizing democracy. However, it is very unlikely that we see large-scale manifestations and protests such as the ones of January 8th," Renno told Sputnik.
J6 Redux?
It has not escaped the attention of many observers that the riot in Brasilia almost coincided with the second anniversary of the January 6 riot in the United States, when a group of Donald Trump supporters entered the US Capitol to protest the certifying of the 2020 presidential election results by several US states, a move the former US president claimed was fraudulent.
The similarities between the two events start with Trump and Bolsonaro, both of whom portrayed themselves as populist mavericks challenging the allegedly corrupt and inefficient ruling elites of their respective countries. During their time in office, the two became natural allies and their friendly relations seemed to persist even after their electoral losses. As matter of fact, one of the reasons Bolsnaro left Brazil for Florida was to spend New Year's Eve at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort.
"We know that Bolsonaro and his group have close ties with Trump and his supporters. They share an agenda, logic and modus operandi. Even in the symbolic sense, they seek to act along similar ways. So, we don't need to have direct coordination from the US to find shared positions and modes of conduct," Ioris explained.
Ribeiro also said that what transpired in Brazil involved attacks on the three branches of government — legislative, executive and judicial — and resulted in their offices being vandalized.
"Among the organizers and financiers, the attempt to emulate the Trumpist movement is evident, but the expansion of the coup scope is more worrying," the expert said.
Renno, for his part, drew attention to the fact that Bolsonaro maintained silence during the lame-duck period of his presidency, which probably helped to hold back the protests since the outgoing president was likely to have been wary of such riots taking place on his watch.
"He can now fend off such responsibilities, even though it is very likely that he might be held accountable for them as well, as it is a group of his supporters," Renno said.
When asked if Bolsonaro's denouncing of the actions of his followers could cost him their support, the experts told Sputnik that even if some of his supporters abandoned him, he would still remain the leading figure of the Brazilian far right as there is nobody to replace him at the moment.
"Bolsonaro will probably lose the support of more moderate voters who voted for him in 2022," Renno said, adding that it was very unlikely that his core base will abandon him.
In a similar vein, Ioris suggested that Bolsonaro-supporting groups "are more likely to continue to profess their loyalty to his agenda and to continue to stand along radical lines."
Meanwhile, Ribeiro suggested that Bolsonaro's response was a deliberate effort to stir up his supporters without facing negative consequences.
"Through official channels, he condemns acts that threaten democracy, with a clear intention of avoiding criminal and political accountability, but through the unofficial channels of his groups of followers, he continues to encourage coup d'état. That is why his extradition and accountability are so important. He will not lose support from his followers, simply because they are aware of this strategy and recognize it as legitimate," Ribeiro stated.