Even though US Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier insisted that selling F-16 jets to Turkiye is a “national and security interest” for the Biden administration, Washington has postponed the deal, prompting Ankara to announce that it may acquire more modern and less expensive fighter jets.
"There is a tremendous amount of anti-Turkish sentiment in US Congress, particularly among the Armenian and Greek lobbies that has caused the bilateral relations to sour," said Dr. Ali Demirdas. "Added to this front are the pro-PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party, outlawed in Turkiye – Sputnik] and Indian lobbies. It is almost 100% that Congress will not change this negative sentiment towards Turkiye. Not only that, the Pentagon, particularly CENTCOM, is fiercely averse to Turkiye’s objections to US policies in the last 20 years (from the rejection of March 1, 2003 motion to S-400s and Turkiye’s YPG [People's Protection Units] policies). All these combined, it’s very unlikely that Ankara gets the jets. I believe the Russian Su-35 is an option."
Despite being one of the oldest NATO member states, Turkiye has been increasingly at odds with NATO over the past several years. Ankara has repeatedly opposed Washington's arming of the Kurdish-dominated People's Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, seeing the YPG as an affiliate of PKK.
The Turkish leadership is also suspicious about the US' growing closeness with Greece. Turkiye's decision to acquire the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems in December 2017 led to Ankara's removal from the US-led F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 - even though the Middle Eastern nation invested $1.4 billion (TL 24.2 billion) in it. Washington also froze the sale of F-16 fighters to Turkiye. For its part, the Turkish Presidency of Defense Industries did not rule out in October 2021 that it would reverse the deal with the US and buy Russia's Su-35 and Su-57 fighters instead.
"US policies in Iraq and Syria have always undermined Turkiye’s national security. Under President Erdogan, Turkiye has been able to defy these policies, which in fact resulted in the 15 July [2016] coup attempt by Washington," Demirdas noted. "NATO has never met Turkiye’s security needs. Due to USA recklessness in the Middle East, Turkiye has suffered greatly and saw little to no help from NATO. This prompted Turkiye’s rapprochement with Russia. The only reason Turkiye is staying in NATO is to prevent other members from taking action against it. The moment Turkiye leaves NATO, southern Cyprus and Israel will become members, surrounding Turkiye. On the other hand, Turkiye is a serious military power NATO wouldn’t want to lose."
The forthcoming general elections in Turkiye, scheduled for May, could significantly change the balance of power in the region in case Recep Tayyip Erdogan is defeated. Turkiye's opposition coalition is presented by six parties which are attempting to agree on a candidate to challenge the incumbent president.
"Everyone in Washington and Brussels is waiting for the May elections in Turkiye. If Erdogan wins, which I believe is very likely, the US-Turkiye rupture will likely get deeper. I have always said that the US is losing Turkiye the way it lost Iran, which was one of its greatest allies in the 60s and 70s," Demirdas concluded.