Western assessments have found that Russia's defensive lines are well fortified, posing a challenge to Ukrainian forces attempting to penetrate them. In addition, Russian forces have effectively used air power, missile strikes, and mines to hinder Ukrainian armor, and have demonstrated a strong defensive strategy.
One Western official noted that Ukrainian forces are vulnerable to minefields, while Russian forces have shown competence in their defensive tactics. However, the officials noted that the counteroffensive is still in its early phases.
The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.
The US and its allies are desperately trying to remain optimistic that Ukrainian forces will gradually make territorial gains, as they expect a comprehensive assessment of the counteroffensive's progress by July, as they deem it crucial in determining the ultimate outcome of the war.
The officials also note that although Ukrainian forces have been trying to adapt to Russian tactics and defenses, the counteroffensive is proving to be a challenging endeavor for Ukraine, which has sustained heavy losses in both troops and NATO military equipment over the past two weeks.
In a recent interview with Western media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also acknowledged that progress had been slower than desired.
Western officials had previously cautioned that defending forces typically maintain significant advantages, particularly due to the time Russian forces had to fortify their defensive lines. Reports indicate that the Russian defenses, known as the "Surovikin Defensive Line," consist of an intricate network of trenches, minefields, anti-tank obstacles, and earthen berms spanning approximately 2,000 km. The sheer length and complexity of the fortified front line pose significant obstacles.
Additionally, adverse weather conditions have also posed challenges for Ukrainian forces, hampering their offensive operations.
“The weather has been playing havoc with the offensive schedule as vehicles have struggled with trafficability,” one of the officials said.
Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that Ukrainian forces have suffered thousands of casualties and the destruction of nearly 200 tanks and over 400 armored vehicles over the past two weeks.