Democrats worry that Manchin's potential presidential bid would split the party's votes and boost former President Donald Trump. Moreover, his absence from the Senate race could hand the GOP a crucial Senate seat and potentially the majority in the chamber.
Throughout the early years of President Joe Biden's administration, Manchin played a pivotal role in determining the fate of Biden's legislative agenda in the Senate. Now, his decision could be crucial to Democrats' efforts to retain their Senate majority. Manchin will join former Republican Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah at an event hosted by No Labels at St. Anselm College, aimed at promoting common-sense solutions and bridging the political divide.
"Our political discourse is lacking engaged debates around common sense solutions to solve the pressing issues facing our nation," said Manchin. "I am looking forward to modeling this type of conversation with my good friend, Gov. Huntsman, and the No Labels community."
Polls suggest that a third-party candidacy backed by No Labels could pose a significant challenge to Biden, particularly if Trump becomes the GOP nominee. A survey of swing states conducted by operatives from both parties opposed to a No Labels candidate shows Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup.
However, when a third-party candidate is factored in, Trump takes a slight lead at 40% to 39%, with the hypothetical candidate receiving 21% support, drawing equally from Biden and Trump.
Several Democratic senators expressed concern that a third-party bid by Manchin or any other No Labels candidate would ultimately benefit Trump.
"It’s pretty clear that a No Labels candidate would help reelect Donald Trump, and I hope anybody who considers it recognizes that that’s a very possible outcome," said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). "That path is not a path to winning. It’s a path to spoiling the election for Joe Biden and electing Donald Trump."
Additionally, Manchin has been at odds with President Biden and voted against several of his nominations. The speculation surrounding his reelection bid, combined with his opposition to nominees and increased media attention, has elevated Manchin's profile.
While Manchin's decision on reelection is expected to be made in December or January, he has garnered financial support. He recently announced raising nearly $1.3 million in the second quarter and an additional $400,000 for his Country Roads PAC.
With approximately $10.7 million in his campaign account, Manchin could mount a strong campaign against West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, a Republican who can self-fund his campaign and announced his intention to run in April.
Some Democrats, however, hope Manchin will choose to seek reelection to his Senate seat rather than embark on a presidential bid, emphasizing his value as a skilled West Virginia politician who can hold the seat.
"Joe is America’s biggest political tease," Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), told US media. "And I trust that he’ll make a judgment to run for reelection in West Virginia. I hope he will."
Manchin himself, however, has remained noncommittal about his potential presidential run, stating last month that he is not ruling anything in or out.