A major ocean current system in the Atlantic, crucial for regulating Earth's climate, is at risk of collapse as soon as 2025, new research has warned.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream, transports heat from the tropics to the northern hemisphere. If the AMOC collapses completely, it could disrupt monsoon seasons and lead to severe winters in Europe and North America, with cascading impacts on ecosystems and food security.
Researchers from the University of Copenhagen used models and studied early warning indicators to assess the AMOC's condition. The team's alarming 2025 prediction is earlier than previous projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
It's reported previous models may have overestimated the stability of the AMOC.
The research highlights the need for immediate action to combat climate change and prevent the further destabilization of the AMOC, noting the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has exacerbated the looming collapse. The study also acknowledges that uncertainties remain, as not all factors impacting the AMOC are fully understood.
"Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC," writes the team.
The findings of the study were published in the journal Nature Communications.