Consumer prices in the US soared in September amid a surge in gasoline prices and rent; underlying inflation is decreasing, which aligns with market contemplations that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates next month.
The US consumer price index (CPI) inflated by 0.4 percent in September, the Labor Department stated last Thursday. August recorded a 0.6 percent uptick - the highest jump in 14 months.
The CPI rose steadily by 3.7 percent last year, matching August's increase. However, yearly consumer prices have dropped from 9.1 percent in June 2022.
Expert forecasts hinged on the CPI, adding 0.3 percent with 3.6 percent annual growth. Nevertheless, the CPI grew by 0.3 percent, barring unstable food and energy components.
In September, year-on-year core CPI rose by 4.1 percent, a narrow dip from August's 4.3 percent, while producer prices improved by 0.5 percent due to increased gasoline and food costs, indicating easing inflationary pressures at the factory level.
Inflation in the US continues to surpass the Fed's two percent target, even after 18 months of rate hikes. Market expectations suggest the Fed will keep rates steady from Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, per CME Group's FedWatch Tool. For the Fed’s top officials, rising yields on long-term government bonds may deter further rate increases.
Ongoing violence in the Middle East will likely dissuade the Fed from further tightening monetary policy despite a slight pullback in Treasury yields.
The Fed has raised its overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022, now at 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent. While the economy added a robust 336,000 jobs in September, signaling strength, the United Auto Workers strike, now in its fourth week, is causing disruptions in the supply chain and was noted as a new source of economic uncertainty by policymakers.