Former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is hoping that Republicans who backed Chris Christie in the party’s primary will move to her side after the former New Jersey governor dropped out of the race on Wednesday.
Who Christie’s former supporters flock to will be key to determining who, or if anyone, will become a serious challenger to Trump. While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis held the second place spot for most of 2023, in recent months Haley surpassed him nationally and has been looking increasingly competitive against Trump, particularly in New Hampshire, where Christie was performing his best.
Christie was polling 12% in New Hampshire, good for third in the State. Trump and Haley scored 44% and 28%, respectively.
New Hampshire is significant, despite its small population, because it is the second state in the primary after Iowa and has been the turning point of multiple primaries in the past. Furthermore, Haley is the most popular second choice among former Christie supporters, with 52% saying that she’d be their second choice.
Haley may also receive a boost from an unlikely source: Democrats. Last month, Democrat mega-donor Reid Hoffman contributed to a super PAC that supports Haley and some liberal commentators have been pleading with Democrats in open-primary states, including New Hampshire, to skip the Democratic primary to vote for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary.
A similar campaign was suggested in 2016, with Democrats being urged to vote for Marco Rubio, but it was unsuccessful.
But even with those advantages, it will not be an easy path for Haley to win in New Hampshire and change the outlook of the race. For starters, even if every former Christie supporter voted for Haley, it still wouldn’t be enough to catch Trump in that state (though it would be close). Complicating matters further is that Christie has refused to endorse any candidate in the primary, pointing to their promises to support Trump if he becomes the nominee.
“Anyone who is unwilling to say he [Trump] is unfit to be president of the United States is unfit themselves to be president of the United States,” Christie said.
Haley will have to work to court Christie voters, convincing them to pick her over the other candidates or sitting out the primary.
New Hampshire is shaping up to be the deciding point of the Republican primary. Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa and barring some last-minute-game-changer, it is unlikely that they will catch them there.
Trump also holds a large lead in Nevada and Haley’s home state of South Carolina, two other major prizes before Super Tuesday, when more than a third of the party’s delegates will be chosen. If Haley can build momentum by performing better than expected or even upsetting Trump in that state, it may encourage DeSantis and Ramaswamy voters to back her and potentially bring out tepid supporters in South Carolina.
A strong performance in New Hampshire and South Carolina would change the narrative heading into Super Tuesday and give Haley her best and likely only chance to beat Trump.
But New Hampshire’s significance also shouldn’t be overstated. As mentioned, Trump owns a commanding lead in the states immediately preceding and following the New Hampshire contest, as well as nationally. Haley could perform well in New Hampshire but if that momentum isn’t carried over to the following states, it will be little more than a blip.
She needs to not only perform well in New Hampshire, but also win some delegates before Super Tuesday, or the perception that the primary is a foregone conclusion will take over.
“If Haley has an upset for Trump in New Hampshire, that still doesn’t get any closer to the nomination,” Republican strategist Mary Anna Mancuso said. “It would just be a good night for Nikki Haley.”
Undoubtedly, the Trump team would like to see a “knockout” blow sooner rather than later. The longer she seems like a viable competitor, the higher the chance that something changes in the primary.
“I think she’s the one candidate that’s got momentum, and 12 days out, that’s exactly what you want,” Republican strategist Jim Merrill said.