“For example, in the next four months and here we're talking about January 20th, 2025, he could in this short period of time encourage President Zelensky to negotiate with the Russian Federation about a diplomatic solution of the war in Ukraine,” Siracusa suggests.
“He could encourage the Israelis to attack Iran and drag the United States into a conflict that might ultimately involve the Russian Federation,” Siracusa continues.
Aside from affecting global affairs, Biden’s decisions may also affect the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in the US, seeing how Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is Biden’s vice-president and thus “will pretty much have to wear what he does,” Prof. Siracusa points out.
For instance, Biden could “give the Ukrainians the green light to use American offensive weapons on their border to hit inside Russia itself” or “encourage the Israelis to attack the oil and gas installations in Iran, threatening world prices.”
“In terms of the United States leverage with its allies, and here we're looking at Israel and Ukraine, allies such as they are, could get the United States in a lot of trouble down the road that would affect the system for a long time,” the scholar remarks.
That said, while Biden still has “plenty of time to get in trouble,” there is “probably not enough time for a major diplomatic breakthrough,” Prof. Siracusa observes, making it unlikely that the 46th POTUS could be aiming for some sort of legacy-defining success in foreign policy.
“I think in the next four months, Joe Biden has to decide whether he's really going to help Kamala Harris become the next president,” Prof. Siracusa adds. “He's very angry that he was pushed aside, particularly since he seems to have reclaimed his cognitive abilities. We're not sure whether he is cooperating or not or whether he's going to watch the Democratic Party go into the wilderness.”