The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted average monsoon rains this year, potentially playing an important role in supporting Asia’s third biggest economy, which may witness its lowest growth rate in the last three decades due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We expect June-Sept seasonal rainfall 100% in quantitative terms”, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said while presenting the first stage-long range forecast of the southwest monsoon on Wednesday.
The IMD defines the average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the entire four-month season.
A monsoon normally makes its onset over the southern state of Kerala on 1 June and spreads across the country over a month.
The IMD official said that currently, neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean.
"The ENSO conditions are neutral and we hope that they are likely to remain neutral in the season, but situation could change slightly towards the latter part of the monsoon season", Mohapatra added.
El Nino, an abnormal heating of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, has often hampered good rain prospects in India.
The prediction of a normal monsoon will provide relief to the government as it will revive the economy following higher consumption demand from rural India, where agriculture accounts for 16 percent of the national income and makes up 49 percent of employment.
Last year, India witnessed an above normal monsoon, with excess rains to the tune of 10%, which was higher than 2018, when the season ended with a deficit of 9% and large parts of the country were under drought.