Israel’s population of over 9.1 million is expected to reach between 12.4 and 12.8 million by the year 2040, a fresh forecast based on demographic trends by the Taub Center, an independent socioeconomic research institute, suggests.
Although population growth is expected to fall from a rate of 1.87 percent today to 1.52 percent by 2040 due to lower fertility and a smaller number of Jewish women in their early to mid-twenties in the 2020s, the positive trend is expected to remain (unusual in most developed countries), particularly as a large number of women reach childbearing age into the 2030s, and as mortality continues to decline and more citizens live to a ripe old age.
The study also assumes that the positive migration trends witnessed over the last decades will continue. Some 184,000 people immigrated to Israel between 2002 and 2017, with the vast majority of them were under the age of 40. Since the country’s founding, some 3.3 million immigrants have come to Israel, 44 percent of them since 1990.
According to the institute’s models, the share of Jews in the country’s population will decrease slightly from 79 percent today to 77.7 percent by 2040. Arab Israelis’ fertility rates are expected to continue declining, as they have since the year 2000, although at a slower pace, in part due to growing levels of higher education and participation in the workforce.
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics released new data on Sunday, confirming population growth of 171,000 persons over the last 12 months, for a total annual growth rate of 1.9 percent.