It expects global oil demand in July-September to increase to 94.9 million barrels per day from 83.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter as a result of easing restrictions, which were introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic.
At the same time, global oil supply in the third quarter is expected to fall by 600,000 barrels per day from the second quarter to 92 million barrels per day. Thus, the market is expected to move from a surplus of 8.8 million barrels per day in April-June to a deficit of 2.9 million barrels per day in July-September.
At the same time, the EIA emphasized that the forecast did not take into account the new OPEC+ agreements on deepening production cuts in July to 9.7 million barrels per day from the previously expected 7.7 million barrels per day.
According to the EIA, the average increase in global oil inventories will amount to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2020. From January to May, their growth averaged 9.4 million barrels per day.
The department also slightly cut the forecast for a drop in global oil demand in 2020, and now expects a decrease of 8.3 million barrels per day.
It also cut the US oil production forecast for 2020 to 11.6 million barrels per day from 11.7 million barrels per day, and for 2021 to 10.8 million barrels per day from 10.9 million barrels per day.