Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, is known as the “Nostradamus” of presidential elections, having correctly predicted the winner of every White House race since Ronald Reagan's reelection triumph in 1984.
Lichtman finally pronounced his verdict for 2020, in a video for The New York Times published on 5 August, giving the definitive answer:
"The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year."
The professor uses a system of "13 keys" for his predictions that include such factors as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals.
Each key is a binary statement which can be answered as either true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the current incumbent of the White House is seemingly on their way out.
The “keys” also factor in a candidate’s personal charisma.
"The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don't pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that's what the keys gauge. The big picture," Lichtman was quoted by CNN as saying.
Currently, polls say presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a lead over President Donald Trump. But as the results of the previous election in 2016 have shown, polls can be flawed. At the time, national and state election polling had consistently projected Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, as defeating Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, author of the renowned book Keys to the White House, has accurately called presidential victors from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to Donald Trump in 2016.
Back in 1980 the academic developed his presidential prediction model that, retrospectively, accounted for 120 years of US election history.
When asked if the key model could account for a pandemic like COVID-19, Lichtman said:
"Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. So, I don't fiddle with them. They've lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don't fiddle with the keys."
Despite predicting elections since 1982, the professor admitted he unfailingly feels the pressure every four years.
"I'm 73 years old… But every time, without fail, I get butterflies," said Lichtman.
Joe Biden gets seven out of 13 keys in his favour, according to the system touted by Professor Lichtman.
Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh responded to the prediction in a statement to CNBC.
“This is an election like no other in history and the choice couldn’t be more clear – between President Trump’s established record of accomplishment for all Americans and Joe Biden’s 47 years of failure and acquiescence to the extreme left,” said Murtaugh.
The latest RealClearPolitics national polling average, shows Trump trailing Biden by just over six points, compared with nine points a month ago, as the current incumbent has been narrowing the gap in recent weeks.
Accordingly, polls suggest the race is tightening in some key swing states.