The forecast is based in part on predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced West African monsoon, according to the NOAA press release.
“For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected,” the release said.
Last year’s record breaking hurricane season had 30 named storms, three more than the previous high in 1916, according to NOAA.
The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.