A new poll by Associated Press/NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research indicates that only 28 percent of American respondents want US President Joe Biden to run for reelection in 2024, including only 48 percent of Democrats.
The survey, released on 20 January 2022, President Biden’s first anniversary in office, has become the latest in a series of polls indicating the incumbent administration's continuous fall in popularity.
The November 2021 NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist survey found that 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would prefer to vote for "someone else" in 2024. Only 36 percent of American respondents agreed that Biden is the best option for the Democratic Party in the next general elections.
The recent AP-NORC poll shows that Biden's approval has plummeted on a whole host of issues in "a stark reversal" from the early days of his presidency. Thus, only 45 percent of Americans approve of the president's handling of COVID-19 (down from 66 percent in July 2021); only 37 percent approve of Biden's handling of the US economy; and a minuscule 16 percent believe Biden’s presidency has made the country more united, whereas 43 percent think otherwise.
Only 28 percent of Americans have "a great deal of confidence" in Biden to manage the White House effectively (down from 44 percent a year ago); and roughly 25 percent are "very confident" that Biden "has the mental capability to serve effectively as president" or "is healthy enough to serve effectively as president" but 50 percent are not confident in his mental capability and health.
27 November 2021, 08:34 GMT
Despite low approval ratings Joe Biden is flirting with an idea to run for the US top office in 2024. In late December 2021, the president told ABC News that a rematch against his 2020 rival Donald Trump "would increase the prospect of running", adding, however, that a reelection bid depended on his being "in good health".
On 19 January 2022, Biden yet again touched upon his possible reelection bid, vowing to keep vice-president Kamala Harris as his running mate. According to CNN, "the president has been adamant that he will run for reelection in 2024, despite the fact that he will be 81-years-old on Election Day".
When asked about his sinking popularity, Biden told the press on 19 January that he does not believe the polls.
Conservative lawmakers and observers suggest that Joe Biden is detached from reality. Texas Republican Senator Tom Cruz recently mocked the Democrat Party's promotional video celebrating Biden's first year in the Oval Office and featuring Hollywood actor Tom Hanks. “The Simpsons did it first!” the GOP lawmaker tweeted attaching a screenshot from 'The Simpsons Movie' saying: 'Hello, I am Tom Hanks. The US government has lost its credibility, so it's borrowing some of mine.'
However, New York Magazine's Ed Kilgore argued in late December 2021, that Joe Biden has five good reasons to put on a brave face:
First, Biden is already the oldest American president to take office. If he really acts like he’s running and that he’s still in the game that would brush away suspicions about his agility.
Second, "Biden could become the lamest of lame ducks if everyone thinks he’s not running in 2024": given his low-profile presidential style he could soon find himself "written off" by political observers.
Third, the president needs to protect Kamala Harris, who has serious popularity issues. The longer Biden "freezes potential opposition" by planning or pretending to plan a second bid, "the easier it would be for Kamala Harris to take over that campaign and marginalise rivals."
Fourth, a potential Biden-Trump rematch could motivate the Democrat base, as he positions himself as a man who saved America from Donald Trump.
Fifth, even if the Dems lose in 2022, Biden's win in 2024 can't be ruled out: Bill Clinton won reelection in 1996 after a disastrous 1994 midterm, and Barack Obama came out on top in 2012 after a similarly terrible 2010 midterm.
The Associated Press is also demonstrating some cautious optimism while commenting on Biden's nosedive in polls:
"Not all is lost for Biden: Many continue to be at least somewhat positive toward the president, his character and his governing."