Only one third of the Taiwan’s residents believe the United States military would assist in the island’s defence in the event of a “Chinese invasion,” a new poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation has found.
55.9 percent are confident that the US would stay out of any conflict, with 34.5 percent “firmly” or “somewhat” believing the US would join in the fight. 9.6 percent had no comment or refused to answer.
The figures mark a dramatic decline in confidence in a US military intervention, with a similar survey taken in October 2021 finding that 65 percent of respondents believed the US would intervene.
78 percent of respondents in the new poll think Taiwan had no chance of withstanding a Chinese incursion independently, but three quarters of those questioned nevertheless approve prolonging Taiwan’s conscription period beyond the present four months.
43 percent expressed hope that Japan’s military would assist Taiwan, down from 58 percent in the 2021 poll.
The polling was conducted 14-15 March, with 1,077 people aged 20 and above surveyed, with an estimated margin of error of 2.99 percent.
In mid-2021, a Chicago Council Survey found that 53 percent of Americans were in favour of a formal military alliance with Taiwan. 52 percent also supported using the US military to assist the island’s defence forces at the time.
Earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated China’s position that Taiwan was an “inalienable part of Chinese territory,” and expressed confidence that the island would “eventually return to the embrace of the motherland.”
The current Taiwanese government and its US allies have repeatedly accused the People’s Republic of having aggressive designs to “invade” and “conquer” the island. However, Chinese officials have insisted that the process will be peaceful. Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “to achieve the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means” was “most in line with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including our compatriots in Taiwan.”
Taiwan, which formally calls itself the ‘Republic of China’, broke off from the mainland in 1949 after the victory of communist forces in the Chinese Civil War. Beijing and Taipei spent the next several decades bickering over which of them has is the one true China. The United Nations formally recognized the PRC as such in 1971, with the United States moving to recognize the People’s Republic in 1979, while maintaining a close partnership with Taiwan.
In the 1980s and 1990s, Taiwan’s longtime ruling party – the nationalist Kuomintang – the same political force that fought the communists during the civil war, worked to improve economic and informal diplomatic links with the PRC. More recently, some of its factions have also expressed support for reunification under the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ principle. However, the current ruling party – the Democratic Progressives, is openly hostile to any form of reunification, and has lobbied Washington extensively to shore up diplomatic ties and military assistance.