As Lebanon Prepares to Expel Syrian Refugees, Local Journalist Warns Of Heavy Price Beirut Will Pay

Since March 2011, with the eruption of the Arab Spring in Syria, Lebanon has been a destination for 1.5 million Syrian refugees who have been searching for a safe haven away from war and poverty.

For the past decade, the Lebanese government has allocated billions of dollars towards their assistance and Mohamed Kleit, a Beirut-based journalist, who has been following the crisis, says their presence has taken an "economic, social and security" toll on Lebanon.

Necessary Decision for Lebanon?

Now, however, as the situation in Syria has become more stable, authorities are planning to let them go. Recently, the Lebanese caretaker Minister of the Displaced, Issam Charafeddine, has said that his government was planning to deport thousands of refugees a month, and that the plan was "humane", "honorable" and "necessary" for Lebanon.

The necessity has mainly stemmed from Lebanon’s fiscal problems. In the past several years, the financial situation in the country has hit a low ebb, partly because of improper management and corruption; and partly because of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the deadly explosion at the Beirut port that caused billions of dollars in damage.

As a result, unemployment in Lebanon has risen. Tens of thousands of Lebanese were pushed into poverty, and authorities preferred to spend the little they had on their own citizens, not Syrian refugees.

"Of course, throughout the years, the presence of these refugees introduced many jobs to the Lebanese market, especially in the humanitarian sector. But those have been going directly to NGOs and INGOs, not the government," explains Kleit. "In addition, the EU has been putting pressure on Lebanon to prevent any asylum seekers from using Lebanon as a launching pad to get to Europe. And this has prompted Beirut to drop the load off its back, and 'force' the refugees to return to Syria, in a clear violation of international law."

Heavy Price

But the catch, says Kleit, is that that conduct will come at a price. One is the potential damage to Lebanon's image. Another is the inevitable depletion of international funds that have become a major source of income for Beirut.

Only in 2022, the Lebanese government has received more than $170Mln from various international bodies and foreign donors. A year earlier, their assistance has been even higher amounting to half a billion dollars, and such was also the case in previous years.

"Following the decision to expel refugees, the only side that might continue to provide Lebanon with assistance is the European Union because it is interested in preventing refugees from entering its territories," says Kleit. "But many NGOs might want to trim their assistance and that won't be to the liking of Lebanon’s banks that are dying to get their hands on their dollars at a time of a financial crisis".

However, that won't be Lebanon’s only problem, and another one could be a crack in relations with Syria, whose security might be strained after the return of thousands of refugees.

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It is widely believed that many of those, who left Syria after the events of the Arab Spring, oppose the country's President Bashar Al Assad. Some of them have even fought his military back home, but were forced to leave, fearing persecution. The fact that they will now be coming back could spell problems for the Syrian strong-man. What could also be troublesome is the potential infiltration of terrorists into the Syrian territories, something that Damascus has been trying to eradicate.

However, Kleit is optimistic.

"The return of these refugees along the resurgence of security issues in some Syrian areas could pose a serious challenge for Assad. But that won't damage relations between Syria and Lebanon. The two sides have discussed it on several occasions, and refugees will be returning to areas which are considered safe. So I don't see a diplomatic crisis," he concludes.