"The US is ready to reach a new agreement to replace the JCPOA. In fact, there is an ongoing dialogue with Biden coming to power. But looking at the negotiations it seems that Tehran is not too hasty to reach an agreement quickly," suggests Dr. Hasan Selim Ozertem, Ankara-based security and political analyst.
US President Joe Biden has backed the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), since assuming office. However, the main stumbling block in the path to striking the deal is that the US nuclear deal with Iran is not a "treaty" and has never been approved by the US Congress, which makes it vulnerable to the whim of the future administrations. Back in 2018, then-President Donald Trump easily tore apart Barack Obama's nuclear agreement with Tehran.
In order to prevent the 2018 scenario, Tehran is determined to reach "a good, strong and stable [nuclear] agreement," as Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian emphasized in early July, following the latest round of the Doha talks over the JCPOA. The Iranian negotiators requested iron-clad guarantees from the US that "the Islamic Republic of Iran will enjoy the full benefits of the 2015 agreement." In response, some US officials accused Iran of bringing forward "new" and "excessive" demands, as quoted by Axios.
“Our demands are completely within the framework of the 2015 (nuclear) agreement," Amir Abdollahian told the press during his July meeting with his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. "I emphasize once again that we have goodwill, we seek logical negotiations and we are serious in this regard."
Nonetheless, the Biden administration pinned the blame on Tehran for the stalled negotiations and resorted to a new round of sanctions on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals. 15 individuals and entities located in Iran, Vietnam, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Hong Kong, have been banned by the US Treasury for "support[ing] Iranian energy trade generating millions of dollars’ worth of illicit revenue."
"The United States has been sincere and steadfast in pursuing a path of meaningful diplomacy to achieve a mutual return to full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an official statement on July 6. "It is Iran that has, to-date, failed to demonstrate a similar commitment to that path. Absent a change in course from Iran, we will continue to use our sanctions authorities to target exports of petroleum, petroleum products, and petrochemical products from Iran."
Much in the same vein, UK MI6 Director Richard Moore blamed Iran for the bumpy talks on Thursday, alleging that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei does not want to cut a deal.
Sanctions Don't Work Well
However, the Western sanctions policy has not so far proven effective in twisting Iran's arm, even though it did inflict damage on the country's economy, says Selim Ozertem.
"I think economic sanctions are a contested policy in terms of efficiency," says the Turkish security analyst. "The initial impact is negative, but in the long run sanctions give to the sanctioned state the opportunity to adapt to the new conditions. However, it definitely undermines the development momentum in the sanctioned country in social terms. Society suffers the most, due to negative development trends and deteriorated wealth distribution."
While the US is seeking to create social tensions in Iran in order to exert pressure on the country's leadership, these tactics could be very unproductive and trigger further nationalism and cohesion within the society against "the enemy," according to Ozertem.
6 February 2021, 11:42 GMT
Is a Military Option Possible?
The US has repeatedly opted for sanctions against Iran as it does not want to use the military option, according to the Turkish analyst.
During the latest talks between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the US leader did not echo the Israeli PM's remarks with regard to the use of force against Iran if the JCPOA talks collapse.
In May 2019, The Washington Post's Max Boot noted that the US' war with Iran "would be the mother of all quagmires." Thus, to control Iran, Washington would need over 1.6 million troops, which is "more than double the active-duty end-strength (656,403) of the US Army and Marine Corps combined." Even if the US sticks only to airstrikes, Iran could effectively hit back with asymmetric tactics, Boot admitted.
"In today’s world, military options do not bring a success story and are risky in political terms," says Ozertem. "The previous cases in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq show that military operations can be counterproductive too."
Multi-Polarity Makes Sanctions Futile
Western sanctions could be even more futile given that the world "has taken a multipolar character in the last decade," according to Ozertem.
"The capacity to isolate a country solely with Western sanctions is too limited," he says. "Other great powers try to take advantage by developing new links and alternative channels with the sanctioned country to bypass the impacts of sanctions. Moreover, as the number of sanctioned countries increases, this paves the way of bringing these countries to seek common practices to overcome the impacts of sanctions."
Iran jumped on the opportunity to develop ties and enhance alliances with other nations and blocs regardless of Washington's sanctions. In March 2021, Tehran and Beijing signed a 25-year comprehensive strategic agreement. The same year, Iran's permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was approved with Russia's full support. In June 2022, Iran formally applied to join China and Russia in BRICS, a group of emerging economies. The Middle Eastern state is also expected to sign a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Iran on July 19 indicated that the countries are aimed at enhancing ties and cooperation. Putin held separate meetings with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and President Ebrahim Raisi, discussing a wide range of bilateral, regional, and international issues.
Washington is visibly discontent with Iran getting new opportunities despite the sanctions pressure: following Vladimir Putin's visit to Iran, the US special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, told CNN on Tuesday that Iran "can opt for a position of relative dependency on Russia ... or it can choose to come back into the [JCPOA] deal that’s been negotiated."
The Iranians were quick to bust the US yarn: Malley’s remarks were aimed at creating a false narrative that Tehran has to choose between striking the nuclear deal with the United States and maintaining ties with Russia, according to Press TV.
"False dichotomy between JCPOA (of which Iran, unlike US, remains a party) and good ties between Iran and its neighbors, including Russia, doesn't hide the fact that indecision of the unfaithful US is the main hurdle for a deal," tweeted Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani on July .
The senior Iranian diplomat further stressed that Tehran's neighborly policy is not contingent on the JCPOA or US permission.