Chinese Army May Impose No-Fly Zone to Thwart Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan - Media

Pelosi is reportedly planning a trip to Taiwan in the coming weeks, raising serious concerns from Beijing. China has repeatedly criticized the United States for maintaining official contacts with Taiwan, saying such actions infringe on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and provoke instability in the region.

The newspaper cited military experts who believe that if Pelosi keeps insisting on visiting Taiwan, Beijing will do its utmost to prevent her from traveling to the island, using diplomatic, economic and even military means.

"Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan is increasing the risk of military conflict between the PLA [Chinese People's Liberation Army] and the US military over the Taiwan issue, as today's [mainland] China is so different from the one in the mid-1990s," Chinese naval expert Li Jie said.

He referred to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-1996 when Washington dispatched two aircraft carriers strike groups to the region attempting to prevent the PLA from turning its missile drills into an actual invasion of Taiwan.

Li added that the US military had stated that it could deploy aircraft carriers to escort Pelosi if necessary, but the Chinese army already has two aircraft carriers in service, therefore it would be too risky for either side to deploy such ships in the waterways.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of Calif., pauses as she speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill, Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022, in Washington

Meanwhile, Ni Lexiong, professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said that the narrowing military and technical gap between Beijing and Washington has made the Chinese authorities more assertive and less tolerant of provocations and challenges from the United States.

"Beijing has tremendous means to push Pelosi to give up her plan. In terms of military options, for example, the PLA might announce a no-fly zone and restricted navigation zone for military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi's aircraft to make a detour if she insists on visiting Taiwan," Ni said.

At the same time, Ni assumes that Beijing still prefers to pursue diplomatic tools to persuade the US to cancel Pelosi's trip.

"For example, Beijing could play the Russia card, by selling something the US doesn't like, as China still refuses to follow international sanctions over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine," he added.

A military source told the newspaper on the condition of anonymity that Pelosi's visit could coincide with the anniversary of the founding of the PLA on August 1. On that occasion, the Chinese army may organize large-scale military drills in the Taiwan Strait, involving a large number of warships and aircraft. In his view, the Chinese military will be more active in patrolling in the Taiwan Strait and off the eastern coast of Taiwan, since the US may attempt to bring Pelosi by warship from the US naval base in Okinawa.