Europe’s population may dramatically drop this century as rising house prices and the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns force couples to have fewer kids, according to economist James Pomeroy at HSBC.
Pomeroy predicts that by the end of this century, Europe’s population could fall by 40 percent and the workforce could fall by 20 million by 2030 because of plummeting birth rates.
“Though economic development typically lowers fertility rates, in developed markets there is some evidence that fertility rates are being held back by elevated house prices as couples postpone their first child, partly as people tend to get married later, but also because they have to save for longer to buy a family home,” Pomeroy said.
According to him, Italy already has 40 percent fewer schoolchildren than it had in 1980, and figures are expected to drop by another quarter by 2040.
“In 2000, the bulk of the population was aged 15 to 45; by 2020, it was 30 to 60. And across southern Europe - including Italy and Greece - there will be twice as many people in their sixties than in their teens,” the economist said.
In Germany, Netherlands, Canada and New Zealand, house prices are more than 30 percent higher than they were seven years ago relative to incomes, he added.
By the end of the 21st century, the population in Europe may drop to fewer than 350 million people from more than 700 million today.